Analyst thinks PS3 will sell 75m by 2010

Mr. Kennedy · 01-02-2007, 08:51 PM

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Quote:

Research and Markets: The Sony Playstation 3 Is Expected To Win The Console War In The Long Term With An Install Base Of Around 75 Million Globally By 2010

DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (
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) has announced the addition of â€œThe Transforming Global Video Games Market: The Emergence of Next Generation Gamingâ€ to their offering.

This brief considers the impact of next-generation consoles on the online games sector, assessing whether online services will reach their mass market potential.

Scope of this title:

* Provides an analysis of primary drivers for online games use as well as for the adoption of the next-generation of video game consoles.
* Highlights game types and principle players within the evolving video games market.
* Addresses current growth trends in the console and handheld markets across major geographic sectors.

Highlights of this title:

Key drivers are spurring the adoption of video games both online and offline. Broadband penetration is prompting the consumption of online material and the use of online social media. Demographics are also shifting with the average gamer being around 33 years old.

The PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360, dubbed the next generation of consoles, each hold a unique position with regard to console offerings. While Sony and Microsoft aim towards increased functionality as a key driver for adoption, Nintendo look for innovative game play and the elusive fun factor.

The Sony PlayStation 3 is expected to win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010. The console is not expected to dominate as much as its predecessor, the PS2, due to late launch issues in the PAL region and the early lead of Microsofts Xbox 360.

In order for this to happen, the PS3 would have to sell an average of 25 million systems a year for the next 3 years. I just don't see this happening. No game system in history (even the PS2) has ever sold close to that many.

Joe Cool · 01-02-2007, 08:54 PM

Kennedy -

One of your user bars in your sig is dead.

Woot for the news story.

Spinoff360 · 01-02-2007, 08:57 PM

And he isn't a future Wii user either so one isn't accurate.

While I don't see it selling that many by 2010 I do see it in a close race with 360 for the market share lead. If it wasn't for Japan then 360 would easily take this gen though.

Mr. Kennedy · 01-02-2007, 09:05 PM

Xbox 360 hasn't been doing that well in Europe either. It's been doing alright there, but not that great.

I can't believe some people underestimate the Wii. It's sold more in Japan than the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined (this past week alone they sold more than the 360 has in over a year), and broke launch records in both the UK and Australia.

BTW, thanks for telling me about my sig. I have sigs turned off, so I didn't know.

Spinoff360 · 01-02-2007, 09:28 PM

Wii sales won't last. The Wii remote won't be original for five years and will lose initial appeal while the weak hardware and lack of HD as HD will be becoming the standard will hurt sales. Also Wii is going to lack third party support again. Initial third party support it is getting is mostly just last gen ports and last gen development isn't going to last much longer. And while we are in the console gen of seeing more multiconsole games due to production costs that won't extend to Wii since Wii means adding even more production costs since they have to make a game only for it.

Also Europe really isn't a market you can say for sure how consoles are doing. You hear how they do at launch and then their lack of sales charts and stuff outside of software means all you hear is word of mouth about more 360's sitting on a shelf or something.

Oh and in Australia Wii only broke the 360 record by less than 3,000 so it isn't a huge record and PS3 also isn't available yet to determine how that will do. And based on the record 360 broke being PSP I would say PS3 could break it again. And in seven months we will see how Wii has done there probably since like I said you really only hear about console sales after milestones or something in Europe, Australia etc. In seven months 360 became the fastest console to reach 100,000 in Australia while PSP as an example had a strong launch and died off. PS2 was even only at 78,000 after seven months in Australia.

Inogenius · 01-02-2007, 09:54 PM

Yeah, I think the Wii is a short term solution for Nintendo. The creativity is absolutely brilliant, but it will not carry them in the long term. That's where the power, and the technical capabilities will clearly show through for the PS3, and less so, the 360.

Sony however is in a pretty bad position with the late launch, and the failure rate that the PS3 is having. Not only is the company in bad shape corporate, but the PS3 was very much so rushed -- many of the problems that it experienced, were not thoroughly fixed, rather they bypassed the problem. For example, The Cell processor unit that it has, is riddled with bugs, and Sony's only solution was to under clock the unit. Not to mention the production is yielding approximately a 90% failure rate immediately, which is extreme amount of cash to burn, especially considering the loss that they're already taking when producing the system. While I'm sure over the coming years, production will be refined and problems will be fixed, they need to worry about the short term reputation of the product, and more so Blu Ray. Much of the success of Blu Ray does depend on the success of the PS3. If there continues to be a lack of Blu-Ray players available, with the price being as high as it is, it itself could end up being a failure.

With that said, I'll probably end up buying a PS3 eventually ... it might just be when the PS4 comes out. I really want a Wii, but I haven't found one and I'm not standing out in line when I hear Wal Mart is getting a shipment in.

Mr. Kennedy · 01-02-2007, 10:38 PM

You know, all these things I hear people say about the Wii are the same things people were saying about the DS before it launched. I know the DS is a handeld, with many similarities: the DS had a unique control method, it faced competition from a technically superior and graphically more impressive system, was much cheaper than the competition, and people saying it would fail. What has happened? The DS is easily beating the PSP in hardware sales and just crushing it in software sales (DS has sold about 30 million worldwide while PSP is at around 18 million).

The Wii hasn't showed any signs of slowing down (estimates have it at 1.8 million already in North America and almost 1 million in Japan, compares to 750K/200K for PS3). Estimates also put it at about 500K in Europe/Australia.

I honestly think that it's a strong possibility that the PS3 will lose not be #1, and the fact that it keeps losing "exclusive" titles (like Virtua Fighter 5 a couple weeks ago) is not helping it.

Brandon · 01-02-2007, 11:25 PM

FYI, there are 2 PS3's sitting in the Wal-Mart in town and have been sitting there for about a week. A dude even asked me straight out if I was interested.

Spinoff360 · 01-02-2007, 11:27 PM

The big difference.....

Nintendo have had a monopoly on the handheld market for more than a decade and have done awful on the console side of things.

......and enough said.

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Well I could point out the PSP has lacked good games which isn't the case with 360 or PS3, I could point out that Wii is lacking third party support which DS isn't or I could point out that the average age of handheld gamers is a lot lower than the console market but really I don't need to point those things out as well as more that I could point out. Oh wait I just did
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God · 01-03-2007, 06:44 PM

even if it does some people on here will still claim the 360 is better.
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Analyst thinks PS3 will sell 75m by 2010

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