Peter Gammons - March 10th - MLB ESPN Insider

DD · 03-12-2006, 12:03 AM

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<TABLE width=443><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>From Theo to Coco </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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</TD><TD>By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com

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Finally, on Saturday morning, Shapiro called Antonetti.
"Now," said Shapiro, "we begin our 13-day offseason."
It was a hectic week for the Indians, who traded one of their most popular and ascending players to get what they and many others consider a special, future, corner star (third baseman Andy Marte) and enough of an upgrade in Mota and catcher Kelly Shoppach to continue building for the long run and not compromise their 2006 season. But for the Red Sox, this was the end to a week that might spawn another dozen books.
The week began with Epstein's return. Now, from the end of the winter meetings, this was an inevitability, yet it received more coverage than John Kerry winning the Democratic nomination in 2004. Some of the coverage turned into comic theater, where some media members wrote more about themselves and some myopic views than the issues. But John Henry, Tom Werner, Larry Lucchino and Epstein hammered out their organizational constitution -- to clear up some of the self-promoting leaks, agree on a long-term vision and work to value players and stick to those valuations so that they didn't get run up the mainsail in free-agent negotiations. And now it seems as if the Red Sox are more focused and less dysfunctional than before Theo put on the gorilla suit and made his escape from Yawkey Way.
Oh, yes -- Manny Ramirez and David Wells remain, as well.
Within 72 hours, the deal that Hoyer and Ben Cherington -- with Epstein's advice and consent -- had worked on for weeks finally came together.
"It is a great trade for the Red Sox," Shapiro said. "Because of the emergence of Grady Sizemore, Coco [Crisp] is probably worth more to Boston than to us because he can play center field. He is a tremendous person whose career is on the ascent. His enormous energy and the fact that he thrives on the stage may make him an even better player in Boston. We had more play on him this winter than anyone else on our roster, but this was the one trade that made sense."
Considering that New England obsessed about center field for five weeks, it was a relief to get the one player they wanted most all the way back to September.
It was a deal that began in September, with Epstein in charge, and was essentially constructed by Hoyer and Cherington. But allowing Damon to walk and patiently working to get Crisp is what the struggle for the soul of the Red Sox was all about.
This will be a far, far different Red Sox team than in 2005; only 11 players remain from their Opening Day roster. Crisp will be in center instead of Damon; Mike Lowell in place of Bill Mueller at third, Kevin Youkilis and J.T. Snow in place of Kevin Millar and John Olerud at first; Alex Gonzalez likely in place of Edgar Renteria at shortstop; Mark Loretta with Alex Cora and Tony Graffanino at second; Josh Beckett in the rotation; and Rudy Seanez, Julian Tavarez, David Riske and possibly Jonathan Papelbon and Lenny DiNardo to reconstruct what was the worst bullpen in the American League.

There isn't anyone who doesn't understand that how far the 2006 Red Sox go likely depends on the health -- physical and mental -- of Curt Schilling, Beckett, Keith Foulke, Lowell and Ramirez.

But this is a team whose great 2003-2005 run was over. It was an aging, slowing team that in September dropped to fifth in the AL in runs and sixth in OPS after leading in both for five months. If management held the 2004 world champions together, they might have been lapped by the young, talented Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 2007.

Now they have added Beckett, Crisp and Youkilis, all at the age (26) when they should be heading toward their career peaks. For years, Epstein has preached that the Red Sox had to start focusing on players on their way up, before they peak. This offseason has been that beginning.

If one takes the 2006 projections in the Bill James guide, Crisp's OPS will be .790 with 13 homers; Damon's .786 with 12 homers; Loretta's is .769, compared to the combined .729 Boston had at second in 2005, and it was only above .700 because of Graffanino and Cora the last two months. Youkilis' OPS projects to be .837 with 14 homers; Millar's .802 with 13; Lowell's 782 with 16 homers (projected in Florida's park); and Mueller's .786 with 12 homers (projected in Fenway). Even Gonzalez's projected numbers against Renteria aren't so bad -- .691 with 13 homers for Gonzalez vs. .749 with 10 for Renteria. And by the defensive evaluation system used by one AL team, Gonzalez was one of the top three defensive shortstops, along with Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson and Houston's Adam Everett. Even Dustan Mohr had a .907 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers, albeit playing half his games at Coors Lite.

If Lowell comes back to 80 percent of his 2003-2004 numbers, Trot Nixon is in the shape he is rumored to be, and Manny is Manny, then the Red Sox actually could be just as good an offensive team as they were. Because Epstein and Hoyer have been driving forces to put a heavier emphasis on defense, they believe they will be improved at every infield position compared to what they were at the beginning of the 2005 season, with Cora (and, possibly Graffanino) and the acrobatic Snow on the bench.

There is strong sentiment to put Papelbon, who will be 25, in the rotation, but where last year they got only 11 starts from Schilling and had to use 10 starters on the year, Terry Francona now has Schilling, Beckett, Wells, Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, Bronson Arroyo and Papelbon. As some of the veterans fade, by 2007 they could well have Beckett, Papelbon and 22-year-old Jon Lester in the rotation. By signing the relievers, they give time for their prized young arms like Craig Hansen, Edgar Martinez and Manny Delcarmen to develop, and have DiNardo (expected to be in the pen), Abe Alvarez and Cla Meredith for inventory.

They had to give up two top prospects and two more great arms for Beckett, but they still will have shortstops Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie and outfielders Brandon Moss, David Murphy and Jacoby Ellsbury in Triple-A Pawtucket by midseason.

Like the Red Sox, the Indians had their share of frustration this winter because of the inflationary free-agent market and their $50M payroll. But if Jason Michaels can repeat his .399 on-base percentage for 400-450 at-bats behind Sizemore, the Indians' offense could approach 2005, especially if Marte blossoms in the second half and they keep Travis Hafner healthy.
The Indians wanted Trevor Hoffman and had to bring back Bob Wickman, but if Mota can stay healthy for five months -- and he is coming to Cleveland on Monday to begin an offseason conditioning program -- then with Rafael Betancourt, Matt Miller, Fernando Cabrera and Scott Sauerbeck in front of Wickman, the bullpen should be fine. Mota's physical showed him to be strong and very flexible, and when healthy, he is a strikeout reliever.

The Red Sox and Indians know that the Yankees and White Sox begin spring training as the heavy favorites in their respective divisions. But this was in many ways a transition trade for both teams. The Red Sox needed to start getting ascending players, gradually introduce younger farm system products into the mix and take a step back from the institutional obsession with the Yankees. The Indians have to constantly try to develop long term and compete in the short term until the Ohio economy changes and the fans return in droves to The Jake.

"In some ways, it was a painful trade for both teams because we didn't want to trade Marte and they didn't want to trade Crisp," Hoyer said. "But that's probably what makes it a good trade."
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