Fantasy Baseball Talk for 3/6/06

Simon · 03-06-2006, 08:29 PM

This is from ESPN Insider

Lineups tend to look different in the American League, because, well, there isn't an automatic out in the No. 9 spot. Yeah, I know Dontrelle Willis batted .261 last season, but in general, pitchers don't hit well.

Pedro Martinez, for example, permitted hitters in the No. 9 spot to bat a mere .105 off him last season, with 37 strikeouts in 76 at-bats. His overall ERA dropped, in part because he didn't have to face designated hitters and could just fan Cory Lidle over and over. The year before? The No. 9 spot hit .240 off him, a higher average than he allowed to the Nos. 4, 5, 7 and 8 hitters! It matters!

Hey, some No. 9 hitters do hit. So it is that I have no real worries about what Robinson Cano will do in dropping from the second spot in the Yankee lineup to dead last. It's different in the AL. The No. 8 hitter doesn't have to be the Brad Ausmus type, the guy who doesn't hit a lick. The last spot hits sometimes as well. When we delved into some of the interesting lineup questions that could affect fantasy in Wednesday's blog entry, the No. 8 spot (and No. 9) was worthless.

But with Cano, it doesn't make me shy away from him. First of all, he wasn't the smartest candidate to hit second to start with. He's not "demoted" to the bottom of the lineup for any fault of his own, it's because newcomer Johnny Damon is one of the top leadoff hitters in the game, and Derek Jeter moves to second. Cano was a nice surprise with his .297 average and 14 home runs.

That won't end now.

In fact, Cano appears more of a slugger than a leadoff or No. 2 type. He doesn't walk. He got caught stealing on three of his four attempts, so he's not Carl Crawford. But for a lot of teams this guy could hit sixth. Think about what the Giants did, hitting Ray Durham fifth much of the year. Cano can top Durham's stats. Back in the day when the Yanks were winning World Series', Scott Brosius was a No. 9 hitter who knocked in 98 runs! That's a bit much for Cano, but if he hits 20 home runs, and for a decent average, why can't he do that? Also, he's going to score runs.

This theory of valuable No. 9 hitters won't be the same on most teams. Cano actually hit .312 in the No. 9 hole, .270 when he hit second. Joe Crede blasted nine home runs in that slot for the champs. Adam Kennedy stole 17 bases hitting ninth. Jhonny Peralta began 2005 hitting ninth, hit seven home runs and had 25 RBI, and next time you looked up he was batting third! It's a topic for a different blog, but it's no wonder pitchers have much more success going from the AL to the NL. Even some of the worst AL No. 9 hitters, like Juan Uribe, Russ Adams and Marco Scutaro still hit .250 or higher with pop. Ben Sheets and Aaron Harang combined were 3-for-119!
Anyway, Cano is an interesting study as a guy dropping from the top of the lineup to the bottom, but it shouldn't hurt his numbers too much. Here are some other situations that do bear watching, for it affects a player's value more.

Indians: Peralta's numbers are going to be affected by his lineup spot. Figure the Tribe is set with Grady Sizemore at the top, then Jason Michaels, but it appears Travis Hafner is the cleanup hitter, so either Peralta or Victor Martinez will slide in at No. 3. It matters. Hafner is an OPS machine and the guy ahead of him, like with Barry Bonds to some degree, sees better pitches. Hafner walks enough that the guy after him is also happy. Cleveland has some less talented bats at the bottom (Aaron Boone, Casey Blake, someone at first base), so whomever bats fifth or sixth isn't likely to score as much either. Look up Tony Clark's rate of home runs to runs scored. It was historic. Something to consider.

White Sox: I think Tadahito Iguchi can top his rookie numbers. Isn't it odd to call someone a rookie at age 31? Nevertheless, he was, like Hideki Matsui was and Kenji Johjima is. Iguchi is slated to move from the two spot to sixth, which means fewer runs scored, more RBI generally. I could still see him running, double-digit steals, too. The question is, does Juan Uribe deserve to be more in fantasy demand by batting second? His stats don't look worthy of hitting behind Scott Podsednik and ahead of Jim Thome and Paul Konerko, but he'd be more likely to take a walk, in theory, run and score. I doubt this experiment works, but the champs don't have a lot of options other than these two, unless Brian Anderson gets on base.

Athletics: I've said a number of times that I think emerging shortstop Bobby Crosby would be a smart choice to hit third, but I think the A's are going to go with Eric Chavez and Dan Johnson there. Hey, at least it won't be Jason Kendall. We're still waiting for his first dinger of 2005. Crosby's numbers will be much different as the three or four hitter than they'd be seventh. The A's were a much better team with him in the lineup, so watch this situation.
Rangers: David Dellucci did much of the leading off against right-handed pitching last year, and he thrived. He hit 29 home runs overall and had a very good on-base percentage. But Dellucci, who hits better than Hank Blalock, also could protect Mark Teixeira in the order if the team opts for Brad Wilkerson at leadoff. Wilkerson did lead off for the Expos/Nationals. Teixeira knocked in 144 runs, so he's not complaining either way, because both of these guys will get on base. Just watch who it is, because it affects the runs scored vs. RBI potential. And if second baseman Ian Kinsler has a great spring, he could be an option at the top as well, and he's got speed.

Twins: I keep hearing that Joe Mauer is again going to hit third this season, and Justin Morneau is down at sixth or seventh, to ease the pressure on him. Mauer is no Mike Piazza in his prime, but his power is developing and he'd be a candidate for 20 homers and 100 RBI hitting third. That's a reach from last year's eight homers and 52 RBI in the No 3 spot, but he's only 22. He's getting better. Really, with the walks and the stolen base percentage, he's a good leadoff option, maybe better than the projected 1-2 hitters, Shannon Stewart and Luis Castillo. If Mauer doesn't take that step up, the Twins will have trouble scoring runs. Watch Morneau, who has 30-110 potential and figures to be a cleanup hitter for years.

Other stuff: Looks like the Blue Jays will not be sending Aaron Hill up to hit second ahead of the sluggers, but Russ Adams. Honestly, I haven't figured out the infatuation with Adams yet, but let's give him a chance. Downgrade the versatile Hill though. Ã¢â‚¬Â¦ The Red Sox will go with Coco Crisp and Mark Loretta ahead of the 140-RBI guys. If by chance Loretta doesn't hit second, downgrade him. Anyone can score 100 runs hitting ahead of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. And pay attention to the No. 5 hitter. If it's Jason Varitek, I upgrade him. Ã¢â‚¬Â¦ The Royals are going with shortstop Angel Berroa as the eight or nine hitter. Amazing how far this guy has fallen since his rookie year. Ã¢â‚¬Â¦ In Detroit, I think Chris Shelton can do great things, but I also would like to see him hit third, not Ivan Rodriguez (undeserving) or Carlos Guillen (injury prone) or Dmitri Young (better for fifth or sixth). If you see Shelton's hitting third, expect 100 RBI. Ã¢â‚¬Â¦ The Angels couldn't find a good option to hit behind Vladimir Guerrero last season, and don't appear to have one now. Garret Anderson is past his prime and not a slugger. If Casey Kotchman hits, and moves up in the order to cleanup, buy in.

OK, let's check out the feedback and then break for the weekend.
From Matt in Indy: "Eric, now that Bret Boone has retired, care to tell us what you've been holding back the last couple months? Every time you posted a Boone question, you'd respond with something along the lines of, 'and that's all I can say about Boone at the moment.' Inquiring minds want to know."

Oh, I think that reaction from me was two-fold. One, I think it was so obvious that Boone would be just as bad a hitter this year as last, I couldn't believe either the Mets would consider him, or a fantasy owner would. Two, that's been a reference to how Boone became a great fantasy player to start with. Let's not be shy, Boone went from years of average 15-60 seasons to a 37-141-.331 explosion right after a winter of apparently lifting weights. I don't want to accuse anyone of anything, but certainly Boone's methods have been questioned by others.

Now that he's retired, at least for now, let's focus on the positive. That breakout 2001 campaign in Seattle is one of the great middle infield seasons of the decade. He never matched it, but was pretty good for three more years, so let's give him some credit. Sometimes a hitter just can't hit
anymore, like the sharp decline we saw in Sammy Sosa.

As for the Mets, I still think Kazuo Matsui is safe as the starter at second and the No. 8 hitter, but if this speedy kid Anderson Hernandez has a good spring, he has the upside. I could see Matsui bouncing back to something a bit more respectable, maybe 10 homers, 15 steals. He's only 30 and the pressure is off. Don't make him your only second baseman, but in an NL only league, he's got to be owned by someone.

From Craig in New York: "Being a huge Mets fan I've been thinking for months now what the new lineup would look like. The big point I think you're missing is Willie Randolph is out of Joe Torre's school of always splitting lefties and righties. I believe for at least the start of the season Willie will go with Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Cliff Floyd, Xavier Nady and Kazuo Matsui. I really don't see Floyd and Delgado batting back to back."

Honestly, the fact I didn't get any angry mail from Mets fans proves that said fans agree that there are certain issues with what Randolph plans to do. I agree that the lineup Craig mentions above will be what we see opening day. Obviously I think a lot of Wright, but it's not like he'd stink hitting fifth, either. On ESPNEWS the other day anchor Brian Kenny debated me about the Mets, and praised Randolph for choosing an on-base guy like Lo Duca to hit second. I just don't like it. I'd prefer a No. 2 hitter have some speed and power as well. Lo Duca doesn't walk much, his OBP is due to a good average (and not as good as everyone thinks), and his strong play ends every July.
From Dan S. in San Francisco: "I have a question about Chase Utley. His numbers from 2005 are very similar to those of David Wright (despite a platoon situation for the first month), and he plays second. So why does Wright seem to be an end of first or early second round pick while Utley is a third rounder? Would I be insane to pick him at the beginning of the second round?"

You wouldn't be insane to pick Utley in round two. Really, Dan makes a good point. But I think most observers expect Wright to develop even more power, while Utley might be a little limited by his inability to hit lefties. I could see Wright hitting 35 home runs this season. I don't think Utley will. Both are sneaky 15-steal guys, and second base is actually weaker than third, so Dan, I see your point. For reference, I rank Wright 11 and Utley 28, but plan to move Utley into the top 20 soon, maybe right at 20.

From Paul in California: "How could Travis Hafner be ranked 19th? Going in the second round sounds very high."

If Hafner hadn't been hurt last season, or the year before, he might have hit 35-40 home runs with 120 RBI. Plus, he topped .300 each season. Hafner is very productive, and worth that second round pick for doing what he does in 140 games. It takes most first basemen 160 games to produce those stats. I agree there's a trend here with his durability, but how can we complain when he still puts up numbers? He's not Mike Sweeney. OK, have a great weekend everyone.

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Fantasy Baseball Talk for 3/6/06

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