TOP NFL Secondaries

Griff0rd

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From www.foxsports.com

Finally, for teams we use our usual metric DVOA, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent, rewarding players for strong performance on third down and in the red zone. We measure DVOA not only for total pass defense, but against specific types of receivers (i.e. number one receivers, or tight ends) and all those numbers for 2005 are found here.


1. Denver
Clinton Portis is a very good running back, but when Denver traded him away in 2004, they received the better player at his respective position. Champ Bailey has a unique mix of cover skills, a nose for the ball, and tackling abilities. Despite being hampered by a multitude of injuries, Bailey made his sixth Pro Bowl last year. He ranked third in pass deflections, tenth in Stop Rate against the pass (58 percent), and added eight interceptions. Bailey's season was capped off by his third-quarter interception of Tom Brady's (almost) go-ahead touchdown pass in the playoffs. Next time, however, I'll bet he runs full speed the entire length of the field.

The best compliment Domonique Foxworth can have is: who? Playing across from Bailey, the one way to get noticed is to mess up. Foxworth, a rookie last year, performed admirably after Lenny Walls went down with injury (and was ultimately released). We charted 96 passes targeting Foxworth, fifth in the league, yet the rookie maintained a respectable 52 percent Stop Rate (38th in the league). However, he lends little help to against the run.

Darrent Williams, another 2005 rookie, is much better than Foxworth against the run and started over him for part of the year before injuries. This year, the two will battle for the starting slot, and no matter which one starts, the other provides excellent depth. Behind them, Nick Ferguson and hard-hitting John Lynch roam the secondary in their safety positions. The veteran Lynch gets more attention for his leadership role, although Ferguson was slightly better against the pass according to our game charting numbers (a 58 percent Stop Rate, compared to 52 percent for Lynch)." Lynch lacks the speed to excel in coverage, but his on-the-line setup led to four sacks and an impressive 56 percent Stop Rate against the run.

2. Cincinnati
Without any off-season defections, the Bengals bring back the entire cast that led the league in interceptions � and that crew wasn't even operating at 100 percent. Starting cornerbacks Deltha O'Neal and Tory James had 15 interceptions combined (O'Neal tied for the league lead with Ty Law at 10) and 26 pass deflections. The knock against the Bengals' secondary is that their aggressive play can result in big plays. That's more true about James (8.8 yards per pass, ranked 71st) than it is about O'Neal (6.4 yards per pass, ranked 16th). Keiwan Ratliff is a below-average nickel back, but the team's depth was bolstered by first-round pick Johnathan Joseph out of South Carolina, who should be a real player.

The safety position will be greatly improved with the return of Madieu Williams, who was out most of the year with a shoulder injury. Kevin Kaesviharn had reasonable pass coverage numbers as Williams' replacement, but he's shaky against the run. Free agent Dexter Jackson, the former Super Bowl MVP, will likely take over the team's starting strong safety position in 2006. Jackson ranked ninth is Pass Stop Rate among safeties, but his own marginal performance against the run made him expendible in Tampa Bay.


3. Chicago
The Bears posted an overall pass defense DVOA of -26.9 percent in 2005, the best in the NFL by a significant margin. Lovie Smith's core pass coverage scheme requires not individual accomplishment but rather a coordinated unit effort. The scheme brings a lot of over-the-top help from the safeties, but also significant inside help from a talented group of linebackers who are not a factor in these rankings. (There's an article in the Chicago chapter of our new book Pro Football Prospectus 2006 which dissects the Bears' number one pass defense.)

Charles Tillman, the enigmatic cornerback who is both loved and hated in his own city, is the highest profile member of the unit, but he may not be the best defender. He certainly has his flaws, most notably difficulty with speediest receivers. On the other side of the field, Nathan Vasher has emerged as the best Bears defensive back. Vasher's aggressive style of play fits well with Lovie Smith's defense.

Chicago will likely miss the veteran leadership of Jerry Azumah and the play of safety Mike Green; however, they added depth with second round pick Danieal Manning and free agents Ricky Manning and Dante Wesley. Ricky Manning made a name for himself with three picks in the 2004 NFC championship game, but there's a reason Carolina let him go. Manning had a high 61 percent Stop Rate, though he was also the beneficiary of a lot of dropped balls.


4. Tampa Bay
Ronde Barber is a pass defender! No, Ronde Barber is a run stopper! Wait, you're both right! New Shimmer is a floor wax and a dessert topping!

Barber has to rank among the most well-rounded defenders in the league. He led the NFL's cornerbacks in tackles, but more importantly, he led them in tackles on running plays and had the highest percentage of successful tackles. Barber and teammate Brian Kelly have rather high opponent completion rates (59 percent and 62 percent, respectively) for elite cornerbacks, but we have to consider that the style of defense they play relies on heavy use of zone coverage that allows receivers to catch short passes. In spite of that style, Barber still deflected 21 percent of passes, third among all cornerbacks in 2005.

The Buccaneers surprised some by re-signing free agent-to-be, Juran Bolden to play the nickel back role. Bolden is an average player, at best, but offers depth and experience in the schemes. Tampa Bay's performance was notably poor against third and fourth wide receivers as Jermaine Phillips continues to try and fill the void left by John Lynch. The release of Dexter Jackson signals that the Bucs are ready for third-year safety Will Allen to step up. Allen earned the starting role with an impressive performance in limited action last year.


5. Dallas
The Dallas secondary put up excellent numbers last year, allowing the league's lowest completion percentage. They were also particularly stingy with first downs and touchdowns, although they had few interceptions. Rebounding from a sophomore slump, Terrence Newman ranked fifth with a 64 percent Stop Rate. (Admittedly, like Carolina's Ricky Manning, the stat is somewhat inflated by a fair amount of dropped balls.) Anthony Henry's 56 percent Stop Rate ranked 15th.

At nickel back, Aaron Glenn proved to be a free agent steal; he ranked second out of 83 ranked cornerbacks with a 68 percent Stop Rate, even though he was targeted on as many passes as Henry and Newman. Roy Williams is an excellent safety, most notably against the run. His coverage skills are often criticized, but frankly, he received little help from his secondary mate, Keith Davis. Davis' role is a little unclear this year, although he seems to be doing well despite being randomly shot twice a month ago. Marcus Coleman, whose role in Houston was reduced mostly to special teams by the end of last season, was signed to a minimum contract and provides depth.


6. Pittsburgh
Lucky Dick LeBeau. He gets to scheme for one of the best young cornerbacks in the game, and one of the best young safeties. Like Ronde Barber, Ike Taylor has both cover skills and run-stopping abilities. Although he only recorded one interception in 2005, he led the league in pass deflections. Taylor ranked 27th in Stop Rate even though he was targeted more than any other cornerback in the league last year (119 charted passes). Above and beyond Taylor, they have a mix of talent at defensive back with 31-year-old Deshea Townsend, 25-year-old Bryant McFadden, and 24-year-old Ricardo Colclough.

Safety Troy Polamalu is known for speed, intelligence, and punishing hits (oh, and hair). Although his stats are decent, they can't really account for the athleticism that allows Polamalu to be involved in so many ways � he's a big variable the quarterback always has to account for when trying to make split-second decisions. Then again, one of the reasons Polamalu could be everywhere was the play of now-departed free safety Chris Hope. Hope roamed the entire secondary and allowed Polamalu to be the ball. The main question is whether Ryan Clark or rookie Anthony Smith can fill that role as effectively. Clark, picked up from Washington, is a good run stopper, but that's not what Pittsburgh needs. His pass coverage was aggressive, but opponents recorded a high completion rate against him.


7. Washington
Washington keeps shedding good cornerbacks but has certainly found more than acceptable replacements. Shawn Springs, the 2004 replacement for traded cornerback Champ Bailey, ranked first in Stop Rate among cornerbacks despite struggling with injury for much of the year. The play of rookie Carlos Rogers earned him a starting role in December and eventually gave the Redskins the flexibility to release Walt Harris. With Rogers in the starting lineup, the nickel back role will be filled by Kenny Wright, who started in Jacksonville last season.

Washington's safety position is also in good hands (on the field at least). If outstanding talent Sean Taylor can keep out of trouble, his rare combination of size and athleticism could earn him status as one of the NFL's elite safeties. 29-year-old free agent acquisition Adam Archuleta is an upgrade over outgoing Ryan Clark.


8. Carolina
In 2005, Carolina recorded the second best DVOA against the pass, thanks in part to the Panthers' excellent pass rush. The addition of Ken Lucas didn't hurt either considering he had an outstanding year at starting right cornerback. His partner, Chris Gamble, lives up to his name, with a team-leading seven interceptions. The difference in charting stats between the two players is remarkable. We charted 84 passes against each player. Lucas had a 60 percent Stop Rate with 5.5 yards per pass, ranking in the top ten in both categories. Gamble had a 46 percent Stop Rate and 9.7 yards per pass, ranking 69th and 80th respectively.

By turning over the rest of the secondary, Carolina has at least admitted that it has two glaring weaknesses, even if it has not completely addressed them. The move of often-hyped Ricky Manning to nickel back was an attempt to improve their third down woes. His release was a signal that it didn't work.

The Panthers ranked 30th against the pass on third down, and their DVOA against third and fourth wide receivers was their softest point. Unfortunately, Reggie Howard is hardly the solution � in Miami, he ranked dead last out of 83 ranked cornerbacks in both Stop Rate and yards per pass. That could open the door for second-round pick Richard Marshall to create a role for himself. The other weakness is at safety. Mike Minter is a very aggressive free safety, but the Panthers are struggling to find a match at strong safety. They let Marlon McCree go to free agency, and replaced him with a marginal player, Shaun Willliams from the Giants.

9. Philadelphia
Where is the reset button? That's what the members of the Eagles have to be thinking. Last year the team fell apart in every way imaginable, and the secondary was not immune. Three starting defensive backs made the Pro Bowl in 2004, but last year Philadelphia ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA. The front seven is partially responsible, since they struggled to rush the passer. It also didn't help that starting cornerback Lito Sheppard played most of the season with a bad knee before finally landing on the IR with a high ankle sprain.

If anything positive for the Eagles came from that injury it was the emergence of Roderick Hood. Playing in Sheppard's absence, Hood performed quite well � in fact, he was number one among ranked cornerbacks with just 4.9 yards allowed per pass. He's still listed as the nickel back, but he could give Sheppard a run for his money if Sheppard hasn't returned to his 2004 form. On the other side, Sheldon Brown had a fine season, ranking fourth in Stop Rate against the pass and ninth in pass deflections.

At the safety position, Brian Dawkins and Michael Lewis are among the best. Dawkins' ferocious style of play is expressed in his coverage skills, his ability to stop the run, and his 3.5 sacks. Michael Lewis is more of a run-stopping safety than a coverage guy. 62 percent of his run tackles stopped a play short of success, first among safeties with at least 25 run tackles. The Philadelphia secondary was not as bad as it seemed last year, and 2006 is the year to prove it.


10. Baltimore
One of the best defenders in the game, Ed Reed only played 10 games last year due to a high ankle sprain. Yet in that time, he only allowed seven catches, and only two of those resulted in first downs. 23 percent of the balls thrown his way were batted down. This off-season, Baltimore gave Reed a new six-year contract that makes him the league's highest paid safety. On either side of Reed stand Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle, an excellent pair of cornerbacks, both with above-average Stop Rates.

The only problem here is that the secondary usually includes four people, not three. Gone are Deion Sanders, Will Demps and Chad Williams, and in their place are former XFL interception leader Corey Ivy, third-round pick David Pittman, and Gerome Sapp, the same guy the Ravens released a few seasons ago. Notice anything about those players? Not only is this depth unimpressive, not a single one of those players is a strong safety.


11. Cleveland
Cornerback Gary Baxter was Romeo Crennel's first major free agent signing as head coach of the Browns. But he was lost for the season in October with a torn pectoral muscle, which itself followed his preseason concussion. (What is it with Browns free agents and injuries?) Supposedly Baxter is back at 100 percent this year, which should greatly improve the play of this unit, which in 2005 ranked 30th in first downs allowed and 25th in opponent completion percentage. 2005 starters Leigh Bodden and Daylon McCutcheon will compete to play opposite Baxter.

Bodden is coming off a breakout year, ranked 11th in the NFL with a 58 percent Stop Rate, and should earn the starting job. Bodden deflected 29 percent of the passes thrown his way, ranking seventh in total deflections even though the cornerbacks ranked ahead of him faced as many as twice the attempts. McCutcheon puts up average numbers at cornerback, but would surely be a good nickel back. The Browns lost Ray Mickens this off-season, which frankly might be an upgrade in its own right.

Well stocked at the safety position, the Browns traded away Chris Crocker to pave the way for a lot of young talent. Former second-round picks Brian Russell and Brodney Pool both showed real promise last year. Sean Jones saw limited time, but could be a significant contributor this year. Cleveland also drafted for depth, using two of their second day picks for secondary positions. Expect this unit to rank even higher a year from now.


12. Green Bay
Ask Al Harris if his shoulders are sore. They likely are � from carrying the Green Bay secondary last year. For most of the year, Green Bay was the best defense in the league against opposing number one receivers. In Week 4, for example, Harris kept Steve Smith to an absurd 12 yards on two catches. But his stats declined late in the year because he was so tired from being a one-man army.

To give Harris some help, GM Ted Thompson made a big splash in the free agent market, bringing the highly-touted, but sometimes underperforming Charles Woodson to Lambeau Field. Although not the superstar that he was a few years ago, Woodson should be a significant upgrade, and Ahmad Carroll should be better in the nickel role. The addition of Marquand Manuel helps an already decent safety core. The other starter, Nick Collins, ranked sixth out of 75 safeties by stopping 67 percent of passes during his rookie season.


13. New England
New England didn't have a "who's who" secondary last year, they had a "who's that?" secondary. Gone are Duane Starks (collective sigh from New England) and Tyrone Poole, and stepping up are second-year player Ellis Hobbs and fourth-year veteran Asante Samuel. Hobbs really stepped things up as the season progressed, earning a starting role as the rest of the depth chart fell to injuries. He ranked seventh in the league with a 61 percent Stop Rate, and second in the league with just 5.0 yards allowed per pass. Samuel, however, needs to fulfill the promise he showed in 2004 after taking a step backwards last season. The Patriots have a variety of veterans for depth, including Chad Scott, Hank Poteat and now ex-Kansas City starter Eric Warfield. All three have outside shots at earning a starting role, but are not long-term solutions.

Safety Rodney Harrison, for whom we have the utmost respect, is the anchor of this defense when healthy. He came off the PUP list this week, although the Patriots are still not sure if he'll be ready to start the season. Last year's other safety, Eugene Wilson, a transformed cornerback, has learned the game from Harrison and it shows. He ranked 17th among safeties with a 60 percent Stop Rate, and the Patriots have been playing around with the possibility of moving him back to cornerback on some plays. If Harrison can't play in Week 1, there's a big talent drop-off to either be Artell Hawkins, who started the last six games of 2005, or Tebucky Jones, who started for the 2001 Patriots and is making a homecoming after years in New Orleans and Miami.


14. Indianapolis
Here's a head-scratcher: the Colts ranked fourth in DVOA against the pass last season, yet they ranked 30th in opposing completion percentage. The strength of their pass defense is very clearly the pass rush, not the secondary, although Indianapolis has a solid couple of safeties in Mike Doss and Bob Sanders. Doss got a fair amount of publicity last year after a feature on ESPN, but put up below-average numbers (a 36 percent Stop Rate on passes, ranked 67th out of 75 safeties). On the other hand, Bob Sanders did have a breakout year this past season; his fearless style makes him one of the most active safeties in the league against the run, and when it comes to pass coverage, our charting numbers are more favorable than scouting reports (his 60 percent Stop Rate ranked 18th).

Nick Harper, most famous for not scoring in the AFC playoffs, is a frequent target of opposing quarterbacks. Jason David made his second year his breakout, but still makes sophomoric mistakes. Harper gives up more successful plays than David, but when David is beaten, he gives up a lot of yards. Marlin Jackson was an average nickel back as a rookie, and has potential; Tony Dungy has hinted at a potential move to safety. The Colts added some depth by drafting Tim Jennings, a cornerback out of Georgia, with the 62nd pick.


15. Minnesota
The Vikings have a better secondary than they put on the field last year, and yet most of the starters remain the same. Cornerbacks Antoine Winfield and Fred Smoot both had sub-par years last year. Winfield ranked 73rd among 83 cornerbacks with a 46 percent Stop Rate, and was tied with Quentin Jammer for most touchdowns allowed. Is this the same man that previous Viking owners hired a private plane to steal away from the New York Jets? Smoot was better, but far from the caliber of player who signs a six-year, $36 million contract. Smoot's Stop Rate of 48 percent ranked him an expensive 65th.

On the other hand, Darren Sharper was everything the Vikings could have asked for. Sharper provided excellent cover skills as well as good run stopping ability. His nine picks ranked him second only to Deltha O'Neal and Ty Law, and there were no touchdowns where game charters listed him as the defender in coverage. Safety Tank Williams was supposed to play opposite Sharper, but a broken kneecap will cost him the season; Dwight Smith, waived by New Orleans, will replace him. Like Williams, Smith is strong against the run, weak in pass coverage. The Vikings drafted hard-hitting Cedric Griffin in the second round. He played both cornerback and safety at Texas and adds versatility.


16. Kansas City
Patrick Surtain is an excellent corner, but like Al Harris in Green Bay, he can't do it alone. Surtain allowed a 52 percent completion rate; the other defensive backs, Benny Sapp, Dexter McLeon and the now-departed Warfield, combined to allow a 62 percent completion rate. Ty Law is no longer playing at a Pro Bowl level � despite leading the league in interceptions, he finished 80th in Stop Rate � but he's way better than anyone else who could fill the slot opposite Surtain. Sapp, Julian Battle and rookie Marcus Maxey will provide the Chiefs with depth at the position.

At safety, Sammy Knight is better known for his skills against run rather than the pass, but has acceptable coverage abilities. Greg Wesley will likely start at free safety, but is the weakest link among the starters and one of the reasons that Kansas City ranked poorly defending passes to tight ends and running backs. Second-round pick Bernard Pollard is a physical player in the mold of Knight, and has skills to be a future starter.


17. Jacksonville
As we note in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, "If the Jaguars defense has a weakness, it is in the secondary. Cornerback Rashean Mathis garners the headlines with his interceptions, but he is often out of position and rarely plays up to his physical skills." Jacksonville, as a unit, did rank ninth in DVOA against the pass (seventh against number one wide receivers and eighth against number twos).

Much of that credit goes to the former Bethune-Cookman standout, but Mathis deflected a below-average seven passes and had to have surgery this summer to remove Marvin Harrison's footprints from his face. The Jaguars recruited former Minnesota nickel back Brian Williams to start opposite Mathis, and he has good cover skills and a nose for the ball. Minnesota's defensive turnaround last year coincided with Williams' entry into the starting lineup, and he's an upgrade from former starter Kenny Wright. Terry Cousin does an admirable job at nickel. Although he sports a high completion rate, he gets the job done when it counts.

The safety position is somewhat in flux as we await the status of Donovin Darius, who was injured early last year. Darius would be a good upgrade to the run defense, but a rehabilitated ACL may not equal shut-down like coverage. Second-year safety Gerald Sensabaugh was benched during the playoff loss to New England for twice being out of position. That's not a good sign of future performance.


18. Atlanta
DeAngelo Hall told FOXSports.com that his goal this season is to be the top cornerback in the NFL. Don't bank on it. Hall had six interceptions in 2005, but he ranked 64th out of 83 cornerbacks in Stop Rate against the pass and didn't play well against the run. He still needs to gain experience before he will truly fulfill his potential. Jason Webster, who started on the other side of the field, posted similar numbers, but without the interception highlights.

Second-round draft pick Jimmy Williams may take his starting job despite his struggles learning Atlanta's zone defense. The Falcons will have two new safeties this year. Lawyer Milloy has lost a step since his Pro Bowl days with the Patriots but provides both veteran leadership and much better run support than last year's starting safeties. Chris Crocker is also an upgrade against the run, though he's not much of a cover man. One stat of note: the Falcons led the league with 217 yards on defensive pass interference penalties last year.


19. Detroit
One revelation of the FO game charting project is that most number one cornerbacks play a specific side, not a specific wideout. But there's one big exception: Detroit's Dre' Bly. Bly played the left side as much as the right. He covered the opponents' number one wide receiver more than twice as much as any other teammate. Number one wideouts averaged 6.3 yards per pass when Bly was in coverage, 11.7 yards per pass when covered by any other Detroit defender.

With R.W. McQuarters and Andre Goodman gone to free agency, the Lions are caught with Bly as their only legitimate corner. The starting cornerback across from Bly will likely be Fernando Bryant, who has yet to prove he can stay healthy. Bly's aggressive style, combined with Detroit's new Cover-2 scheme, means that Detroit needs effective safeties. Strong safety Kenoy Kennedy is a solid veteran presence, and hopefully he can impart that veteran knowledge upon second-round draft pick Daniel Bullocks, who will start at free safety.


20. Buffalo
Clearly beefing up the secondary was a priority for the new (old) Buffalo regime, which took three defensive backs in the draft. Although he will surely make rookie mistakes, Donte Whitner should be a good fit in Dick Jauron's defense � even if he was a reach at the eighth overall pick. The Bills might end up with two rookies starting at safety by midseason, Whitner and fourth-round pick Ko Simpson. Cornerbacks Nate Clements and Terrence McGee were better in 2004 than they were in 2005, and hope to rebound this season. Both Clements and McGee are aggressive corners with the ability to cover receivers as well as make interceptions. Third-round pick Ashton Youboty will be the nickel back.


21. Seattle
This is the seventh article in our series ranking the units for all 32 teams. In every one of the previous six articles, Seattle was ranked fourth or higher. Some readers might wonder if FO will be predicting a perfect season in the Pacific Northwest. No, the Seahawks are weak in two places. They just happen to be the last two units of the series: secondary and special teams.

On a game-by-game basis, Seattle's 2005 secondary was highly erratic, with a mix of superb performances and absolute bombs. The unit's best games came against Kurt Warner, Drew Bledsoe, and two Philadelphia backups. They were torched by the likes of David Carr and Ken Dorsey. In the playoffs, the secondary had an average game against Mark Brunell, but ripped up Carolina by having the whole team cover Steve Smith. They have had some key personnel losses since February.

Starting cornerback Andre Dyson, who was lost much of the year to injury, has moved on and will be replaced by either Kelly Herndon, Jordan Babineaux, or first-round pick Kelly Jennings. Herndon and Babineaux are average at best, and Jennings is inexperienced. At the safety position, they lost Marquand Manuel, but Mike Green (ex-Chicago) is a fine replacement. Green is an excellent pass defender, and he will allow college linebacker-turned-strong safety Michael Boulware to be more of a presence on the field. Seattle will have more depth at safety if and when Ken Hamlin can return to true football strength.


22. New York Giants
In training camp, rookies wear their names taped to their helmets, but this year, the Giants are handing out "Hello My Name Is ... " stickers to everybody in the secondary. Big Blue revamped the unit by signing six defensive backs in the first two days of free agency, then drafting a safety. Gone are Will Peterson, Will Allen, Brent Alexander, and Shaun Williams. In are Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters, who add some solid experience, and Will Demps and Quentin Harris, who add some youth. Madison has likely been brought in to be the number one cornerback, but he hardly had such numbers last year.

Receivers caught an average number of passes against Madison, but he rarely stopped a complete pass short of a first down, so his 46 percent Stop Rate ranked him 71st. And in breaking news, he'll be a year older this year, which can't be good. Madison is pretty effective against the run, where his 61 percent Stop Rate ranked him 12th among defensive backs. McQuarters' numbers are not notably better in coverage, and he's not the run defender Madison is. Last year's starter Curtis Deloatch will be much better suited at nickel back. Corey Webster could also get a shot given his effective contributions last year. Former Baltimore safety Will Demps will improve the Giants run defense if not their coverage; he replaces the retiring Brent Alexander.


23. Tennessee
Tennessee ranked last in the league in pass defense DVOA last year, so you may be wondering how on earth this team is ranked all the way up at number 23. The answer: Experience and Hope. Last year, Pacman Jones clearly improved as the season progressed. His stop rate in the first six weeks was a miserable 30 percent, but in the last ten weeks it jumped to a very respectable 58 percent.

Pacman's running partner Reynaldo "Don't Call Me Dig Dug" Hill should also be better with a year more experience. At safety, the loss of Tank Williams is more than offset by addition of Chris Hope, whose talents were often lost in the enormous hype surrounding Troy Polamalu in Pittsburgh. Williams and LaMont Thompson weren't bad against the run, but their problems providing deep coverage made Jones and Hill look a lot worse than they really were.


24. Arizona
The Cardinals are very similar to the Titans. Both teams featured two rookie cornerbacks last year, a well-regarded first-round pick (Jones and Antrel Rolle) and a less-regarded later-round pick (Hill and Eric Green). Both teams have an excellent safety (Hope and Adrian Wilson) and a subpar safety (Thompson and the decaying bones that once were Robert Griffith). Wilson is one of the best defensive backs in the league. Last year, he ranked among the top four safeties in all of our statistics � both run and pass � and only one other safety was even in the top 20 in every category. He had eight sacks, twice as many as any other safety.

On the other hand, the Arizona corners were worse than the Tennessee corners. Rolle missed the middle 10 games due to injury, but when he did play, opponents completed 81 percent of the passes thrown his direction. Yikes! He allowed a first down or a touchdown on 44 percent of the plays against him. Eric Green allowed a 72 percent completion rate, and was 79th out of 83 cornerbacks with 9.5 yards allowed per pass. Both should show improvement with a year under their respective belts, and a healthy Rolle allows the Cardinals to demote David "The Human Target" Macklin to nickel back.


25. New Orleans
Top cornerback Mike McKenzie plays aggressively, but does allow big plays. He has an above-average deflection rate, yet his defensive gambles yielded only one interception. McKenzie does provide adequate run support, ranking fifth among cornerbacks with a 67 percent Stop Rate on run tackles. Fred Thomas likely played himself into a full time starter role last year. The Saints let Fakhir Brown go to St. Louis because Thomas was better even though Fakhir is four years younger. The Saints lost safety Dwight Smith, who didn't do much for them in coverage situations but was an effective run stopper. He ranked fourth among safeties in holding opponents from getting successful runs. Bryan Scott, acquired in trade from Atlanta, ranked 13th with a 64 percent Stop Rate but will compete with Jay Bellamy and Josh Bullocks for the strong safety job. Omar Stoutmire is the free safety.


26. Miami
Nick Saban's revamped squad is not a list of all-stars, but if he has any Belichick in him, this is where it might show up. Veteran cornerback Sam Madison is gone, replaced by free agent Will Allen. Allen was never the star that Giants fans expected of him, but can he shine in Miami? Last year his numbers were similar to Madison's, and Allen is four years younger.

Starting opposite Allen will be sophomore Travis Daniels, who played under Saban at LSU and did better in our charting numbers than any other Dolphins defensive back. Miami also signed Renaldo Hill from Oakland and Andre Goodman from Detroit for depth. Hill is interesting because he allows a lot of short completions: receivers caught 71 percent of passes last year when Hill was in coverage, but only 50 percent of passes were deemed to be successful plays by our metrics. Veteran Travares Tillman is currently atop the depth chart at strong safety, while the free safety position will be a battle between Yeremiah Bell, who played mostly special teams in his first two seasons, free agent Deke Cooper, formerly of Jacksonville, and first-round pick Jason Allen from the University of Tennessee.


27. New York Jets
The loss of cornerback Ty Law is not as bad as it may seem. Although he pulled in a league-leading 10 interceptions, he was not the shut down corner of old. In fact, he stopped just 41 percent of opposing passes, ranking him 80th out of 83 cornerbacks. Can free agent Andre Dyson be an upgrade? Hard to say, since he was injured for much of last year. Even if Dyson is an upgrade, David Barrett is still a weak link on the other side. And 2004 second-rounder Justin Miller had larger than usual rookie struggles. His Stop Rate of 24 percent would have ranked last in the league by a healthy margin, except we only ranked cornerbacks with at least 40 charted passes, and Miller missed that by a couple throws. The bright spots in the secondary are the emerging young safeties, Erik Coleman and Kerry Rhodes.


28. San Francisco
DVOA says the 49ers ranked second to last in 2005 pass defense, but think happy thoughts. We're good, we're smart, and doggone it, people like us. San Francisco isn't last because this unit has potential. Free agent pick up Walt Harris is penciled in as the starting right cornerback but will face competition for the role, and he could end up playing the same nickel role he did in Washington. Possibly playing the other side is Shawntae Spencer, struggled against elite receivers last year, but didn't exactly have help from anywhere.

The front seven got no pressure, and receivers had all day to get open. Nonetheless, our game charters recorded more pass deflections by Spencer than any other defensive back not named Ike Taylor. Spencer is working with Cris Carter this summer to improve his "understanding" of receivers. Derrick Johnson, Sammy Davis, and Bruce Thornton all posted similarly mediocre numbers last year but will compete for starting spots. Johnson has an advantage in that he is better against the run. San Francisco will have Tony Parrish back at safety after he missed half of last year with a broken leg, which will help the run defense. Mike Adams and newly signed Chad Williams will battle it out for the free safety spot.


29. Houston
As a rookie in 2004, cornerback Dunta Robinson was already the Texans' best defensive player. He even earned runner-up honors for defensive rookie of the year. Although he didn't put up as many flashy numbers as he did his rookie year, Robinson was pretty solid in 2005. Behind Robinson, however, this secondary is extremely weak. Phillip Buchanon only played in ten games last year, but his effectiveness, or lack thereof, could hardly be missed. Buchanon ranked next to last among cornerbacks with a 37 percent stop rate, and gave up an average of almost 10 yards per pass target. Demarcus Faggins is slated for the nickel role, but played notably better than Buchanon in roughly an equal number of plays. Safeties Glenn Earl and C.C. Brown struggled in coverage last year, and will likely do so again this year.


30. Oakland
Looking for New England's patchwork secondary? Try Googling the 510 area code. Oakland, which let potential starters Charles Woodson and Renaldo Hill leave in free agency, must have seen something in the Patriots secondary that many New Englanders never did. The oft-injured Tyrone Poole didn't make it onto the field much in 2005, and Patriots fans sure wish they could say the same thing about Duane Starks. 25-year-old Nnamdi Asomugha stepped up during Woodson's injury and was one of the reasons Al Davis let some of his other defensive backs go.

Although he recorded no interceptions (the team as a whole only grabbed five picks), he ranked 17th with a 56 percent Stop Rate. Last year's combine sensation, Fabian Washington, allowed a high completion rate (63 percent), but a fair number of those completions were thrown underneath and never achieved enough yardage to be considered successes. Nevertheless, Oakland struggled against number one and number two wide receivers last year, and that may well continue this year. Rookie safety Michael Huff should be an upgrade from Derrick Gibson, but rookie safeties tend to take time learning the position. Stuart "The Yeti" Schweigert has good pass coverage abilities, but between him and Huff, the Raiders will be susceptible to the run.


31. St. Louis
The St. Louis secondary was a mess in 2005, most notably against number one wide receivers, where the Rams ranked dead last in DVOA. Cornerback Jerametrius Butler is back after a torn ACL cost him his 2005 season, but as he recovers, his coverage abilities will surely be tested. Battling for the number two slot is a collection of mediocre talents: veteran DeJuan Groce, free agent Fakhir Brown, and youngster Ron Bartell. The Rams also made Tye Hill the first cornerback off the board at this year's draft, but most rookie cornerbacks don't excel right away. At safety, the Rams have replaced Adam Archuleta with Corey Chavous, which would have been a good move if they could have signed the Corey Chavous of 2001 instead of 2006.


32. San Diego
NFL careers are short, and success is fleeting. Teams with a real opportunity to win have to seize the moment. Right now is San Diego's opportunity. Assuming Philip Rivers pans out like the Chargers expect, this team has very few weak links � except for the entire secondary. So they used the draft to fill their biggest need with ... a three-year project. A.J. Smith is wasting LT's prime with Antonio Cromartie. When Quentin Jammer is your best cornerback, you know you are in trouble. Jammer led the league in touchdowns allowed. His Stop Rate on opposing passes ranked 61st. The other corner, Drayton Florence, was even worse. Florence allowed receivers to catch 69 percent of the balls thrown his way, for an average of 8.5 yards.

Last year's safeties, Terrence Kiel and Bhawoh Jue, were just flat out atrocious. Marlon McCree was brought in to steal the job from Jue, but Kiel is still a starter unless Clinton Hart can hop him on the depth chart. With solid skills (if not playing experience), Antonio Cromartie may very well be the Chargers' cornerback of the future. But by the time he's developed, San Diego's offense will no longer feature two superstars at the peak of their careers. And Cromartie will need to outperform Jammer, Kiel, Florence, Sammy Davis, Hanik Milligan, and Teddy Gaines � all the other former cornerbacks of the future drafted by this regime since 2002.

kensider

As far as the Steelers, Ike Taylor can walk next season as a free agent. He has played well here, but I think his asking price will be too much. But they do have the depth there to survive

Suffy

i am a huge chicago fan i just love the way their secondary plays tis beautiful but i agree with you that cinncy they dont get enough credit and have a very good secondary