This is a discussion on "The Book" within the North American Sports forums, part of the Sports Forums category; So, you guys know how you'll often hear an announcer say that a manager is "playing it by the book", ...
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So, you guys know how you'll often hear an announcer say that a manager is "playing it by the book", implying that he taking the high-percentage option? Well, a few stat-guys did some research to try to figure out what exactly "the book" is. Namely, if a manager is trying to maximize his chances of winning, not just one game but over the long run, what strategies should he employ?
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As a result, they named their book "The Book". I bought this book recently, and I gotta admit, some of their findings are quite interesting.
The part I most recently read, that I found to be really incredible is the section on putting together a line-up. I dont have the book with me now, but when I have some time, I'll post some of the more interesting findings.
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One thing that was cool was that they proved that in the NL, it's better to bat your pitcher 8th and have a "secondary leadoff" hitter batting 9th
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The most recent section I read dealt with my biggest pet peeve as far as "traditional" strategy goes...the 3-run save.
The authors of the book showed that a team that goes into the ninth inning with a 3-run lead wins 95.5% of the time. But you might be thinking to yourself "Well, of course that's true...teams bring in their best reliever to pitch in this situation." And you would be right. But there are times where non-closers need to come in and shut the door, whether it be because of injury, fatigue to the closer, etc. So the authors separated the performances of the elite closers in the game: Rivera, Wagner, Hoffman, etc. (their data pre-dates guys like Papelbon).
They found that the elite closers "save" the game in 97.5% of these chances, and that the absolute worst relievers who have been brought in to save these games have been successful 94.5% of the time. So, whats the point? You could use almost any reliever in your bullpen in this situation and still exit the game with a win.
They also found that the "win value" (the difference between how often the closer saves the game and how often the average pitcher saves the game) is doubled in a 2-run game, and tripled in a 1-run game. So, whats the conclusion? Dont bring in your closer in a 3-run game, because you might need him in a tighter situation the next night
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Last edited by Dr. Giganto; 01-19-2008 at 01:11 PM.
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