It's dead

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

I was discussing this with one of my friends. Do you think the art of the stolen base is dead? it sure seems like it. The days of Rickey Henderson swiping 100 in a season are long gone it seems. I mean to me at least, stealing bags changes the game. If I had guys like Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, or Rafael Furcal, I'd be stealing like there is almost no tomorrow. I don't know why they don't do it. Are they too conservative, or am I just way to aggressive?

Slimdust

nah I don't think its dead, maybe just in a runt.

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Blitzkrieg

Administrator

I think it has a lot to do with this 'steroid era' we're in. Balls are flying out of the ballpark at alarming rates so managers don't want to take the chance or running themselves out of a potential big inning. They just sit there and wait around for the 3-run homer. It's made baseball a lot more boring in my opinion. Baseball is supposed to be a strategy based game but there's no strategy left. Teams like the Yanks and Sox would rather sign 9 Jason Giambi types and slug it out. In reality it's harder to win that way. Speed doesn't slump, but power does. The Sox only won the world series because they added speed and defense through the minors to go along with their great pitching and yes, couple big power guys. GMs need to realize a guy like Reyes can be just as or more game wrecking as a power hitter who is going to hit .270

Dr. Giganto

Sports Moderator

Well, for one thing, guys like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines realized the value of a walk. A lot of the speed guys today dont work the count, and have low OBPs. Thus, they get on-base less often and have less opportunities to steal.

For instance, here are the MLB SB leaders, and their OBPs last year:

Reyes .354
Pierre .331
Hanley Ramirez .386
Crawford .355
Brian Roberts .377
Eric Byrnes .353
Chone Figgins .393 (a fluke beyond all flukes...never had an OBP above .352 before)
Jimmy Rollins .344
Corey Patterson .304
Shane Victorino .347

To put that into perspective, Rickey Henderson's career OBP was .401, and its even higher if you take away the years he played past age 40. Tim Raines's career OBP was .385...only Hanley Ramirez ( a legitimately good hitter) and Chone Figgins (not a legitimately good hitter) were higher last year.

Secondly, I think a lot of it has to with teams simply having a better understanding of the importance of certain aspects of the game, like baserunning. The harm to the offense of getting thrown out stealing is much greater than the benefit of stealing that base. 3 times greater, in fact. Thus, if you dont steal at a 75% clip, you're actually harming the team. Henderson, Raines, and Vince Coleman all stole at over an 80% success rate, so it made sense for them to run. Here are the SB%s for the names listed above:

Reyes: 78.8%
Pierre: 81.0%
Ramirez: 78.4%
Crawford: 83.3%
Roberts: 87.7%
Byrnes: 87.7%
Rollins 77.4%

These guys are all above the 75% threshold...they steal bases because they are the ones who CAN steal bases. As you go down the list, and you get to guys with like 10-25 SBs, you find more and more guys that are below 75%. I mean, if a guy like Gary Sheffield is going to get thrown out 40% of the time, you're better off never sending him than forcing him to steal 20 times a year just to "make things happen".

Plus,once you get past the speed demons, the guys behind them have less incentive to steal, because the hitters behind them are better. Think of it like this:

Bobby Abreu is a decent base-stealer...he's stolen as many as 40 bases in a season, and has 296 career SBs at a 76% success rate. He steals steals a decent amount (25 last year) but less than before. After he bats, the next few batters are Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, and Hideki Matsui. If Abreu steals second and A-Rod hits a home run, it's exactly the same as if Abreu had stayed on first. Abreu probably scores from first on a double or triple, so stealing makes little difference if A-Rod hits a double or triple. If A-Rod walks, there's no difference at all if Abreu had stolen or not. In fact, A-Rod is probably more likely to walk if Abreu steals. Only if A-Rod hits a single, or a hard groundball (which is converted into a double play) does Abreu's position on first base make him worse off. A-Rod only did those two things (single and GIDP) in 16% of his PAs last season, and of course, he probably would have had at least one or two more GIDPs if Abreu never stole in front of him, but over the course of 708 PAs, the effect is minimal.

So, what if A-Rod hits a single? Instead of scoring from second, Abreu goes to either second or third. That's bad, right? Yeah, but the next batter is Jorge Posada, who has a pretty good chance of knocking Abreu in from second or third. And if Posada, makes an out, there's a good chance Matsui will knock abreu in.

Stealing bases is a high-risk, low reward maneuver, especially in this era of high-powered offenses. Players are going to get knocked in with extra-base hits anyway, so why take the risk of getting thrown out?

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

True, on most parts, but I don't know, When I pitched a bit in High School, stolen bases knocked me off my rocker as a pitcher. Granted, I was still in High School. They mess with your thinking. In the examples you gave you used the Yankees, which was an excellent example by the way, but not every "Abreu" is covered by an "A-Rod" and a "Posada" hypothetically speaking. Let's look at the Twins, mostly singles hitters right? Wouldn't stealing a bag make them more likely to score? Same thing with a few other teams.

Dr. Giganto

Sports Moderator

Oh, of course a team like the Twins would be better off. They dont have the mashers in the line-up (besides Morneau) to move baserunners more than one base at a time.

Basically, the more power you have in your lineup, the less you should be inclined to steal. Which is actually funny, because the Yankees are still one of the top stolen base teams in the majors (7th in MLB, 4th in AL). But if they didnt have guys like A-Rod, Posada, Matsui, Giambi, etc., they would be even MORE inclined to steal.

The Yankees have 4 guys who steal bases well: Damon (27-for-30 last year), Jeter (15-for-23 last year, but 79% for his career), Abreu (25-for-33) and A-Rod (24-for-28), and that's a major reason why they led the majors in runs scored...they not only have the power, but they have guys who steal and do so efficiently

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

That's kinda what I was trying to get at. Gardenhire, should in all honesty steal more. Same with Maddon down in Tampa. And look at the speed they have down there.

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

My point still stands. the Yankees cannot and will not win the world series with guys like Giambi in the heart of that order. If every power hitter was as good as A-Rod it'd be a smart move to not send a runner, but why am I going to trust a .250 hitter who strikes out well over a hundred times a year?

There's no reason a guy like Hanley Ramirez shouldn't be stealing 80 bags a year, his team has zero offense.