Brandon

lol just wanted to make sure you'd see the thread. So, I took it upon myself to look at some of the baseball sites you've told us to check out. I love the stats and how everything is calculated, interesting stuff.

But it got me thinking. We've talked a lot on here about how the MLB playoffs is a crapshoot, I've tried to argue that I don't think it's that simple and it got me thinking..

We know that in a short series a couple guys can go into a slump or vice versa.. maybe a guy that you didn't expect to go into a slump gets red hot at the right time..

so if I assemble a team where I have players in the outfield that catch most hard hit balls 90% of the time, guys who all hit over .300, guys who pitch well in 90% of their starts, guys who don't get caught stealing, etc.. etc...

Wouldn't I have a much higher percentage of winning games than the other teams who don't have all these players?

It's like Pacino said in Any Given Sunday isn't it? "You add up all these inches and it's gonna make a fucking difference between winning and losing"

Dr. Giganto

Well, here's the thing...ALL the playoffs teams are generally made up of guys like this. If they weren't, they wouldn't be in the playoffs. They would be among the schlubs who didnt make the playoffs.

In the ALDS this year, the 94-win Yankees played the 96-win Indians. The Indians were the better team, and their records showed it. However, after a grueling, six-month long slog, the Indians win total was 2% higher than the Yankees'. Two percent. That's not that much of a difference.

Would the Yankees have won 94 games if they didnt have the top-scoring offense in the major leagues, two high-quality starters (Wang and Pettitte), two studs in the bullpen (Joba and Rivera), a centerfielder who throws out everyone who tries to run on him, and 4 very strong baserunners (A-Rod, Abreu, Damon, and Jeter)?

The Indians weren't playing a team of schmos...they were playing a high-quality team. In this case, the better team won out, but a few bounces go the Yankees way, and the Yankees could have VERY easily won that series.

Also, guys cant control when they go into slumps...it just happens. Look at CC Sabathia...he threw a "quality start" in more than 3/4ths of his starts this year (a much higher percentage than Beckett), including all 3 starts he made against AL playoff teams (he also had a 7 IP, 4 ER game against the Phillies), and then he gets to the playoffs and got knocked around all 3 starts. Chien Ming Wang, who made one good start in each of the last two playoffs, came out this year and got SHELLED. Do you think that if he got 100 starts against the Indians this year, he would really have like a 10.00 ERA or whatever he had?

So, you say dont they "have a much higher percentage of winning games" Higher, yes. MUCH higher? No.

Think about it like this...let's say, hypothetically, the Red Sox were a 60% favorite to win each series they played. Then, if you had to pick a winner for each individual series, it would be the Red Sox. But one stumble along the way, one upset (from a 94-96 win team, mind you) and now all of a sudden, the Red Sox arent champions anymore, even though they they had a better chance at the start of the playoffs than any other team

This year, the best team won, but that is very often not the case, mostly because the "best" team isnt THAT much better than the teams they are playing against

__________________

Brandon

Well, I understand what you're saying, but the teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and maybe even the Tigers now are approaching what I'd call "Super Team" status. A team like the Padres has some nice quality players don't get me wrong, but I'm not sure if it's fair to say they'd be among the absolute best teams. In the regular season, they play in a different division, different league, it's hard to gauge how they would fair if they were put into the American Central we'll say.. so to me, sometimes win totals can be a bit misleading..

Then I look at it like this. If a team wins the 1st round against a much better opponent then them..on paper.. what's the odds that they will defeat two more teams who are considered better than them?

That's why this year when the Rockies made the world series, it was in the back of my head that not only have they been on an incredible streak and are due for a letdown, but they are also playing a team that is still heavily favored despite the win streak they have been on.