The MLB Playoffs crapshoot theory

Dr. Giganto

Oh, by the way Brandon, to answer your earlier question, Vegas also sets the football lines that way. It's easier though, because with the point spread, you just want EXACTLY the same amount wagered on both sides. With the baseball, you have to do the +180/-160 type stuff, and it makes the calculations much harder.

Basically, the Vegas bookmakers figure out what the "fair" spread is. Then, they usually give all the favorites an adjustment, because it's human nature to pick the favorite, so in order to get equal money on both sides, you have bump the spread up a little bit.

Plus, certain popular teams, like Patriots, Colts, Steelers, etc. usually get an adjustment, since people are less likely to bet against those teams. Not many people realize this, but the Colts play a LOT of close games, but they usually have a really big spread, because thaty's the only way the Vegas bookies can get equal money on both sides of the game

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

Baseball uses money lines. Because it's hard to say the Yankees will win by 1. so instead you bet straight up on the team and get money equivalent to the money line.

Dr. Giganto

I was doing some futzing around, and I found a nice little study that showed why the A's couldn't get over the hump early this decade:

ESPN.com: Page 2 : Why don't the A's win in October?

The main point is that they identified three major factors that correlate strongly with postseason success: quality of the closer, strikeout rate of the pitcher, and defense.

And, if you think about it, it makes sense. The difference in talent between playoff teams is so small, most of the games are likely to be close. Thus, the quality of the closer makes a big difference.

The strikeout rate and defense are also important because those are how you keep runners off-base. Offenses in the playoffs are generally very good and efficient, so you want to keep people off the basepaths.

So yes, pitching/defense wins championships. This might also explain the struggles of the Yankees in recent years, where there offense has still been great, but the defense has been poor and the pitching has been suspect (although the closeris still awesome).

They also found that the 2000 A's were one of the worst playoff teams of the last 30 or so years based on a combination of those 3 factors, which makes sense that they lost in the first round. And, considering the team didnt change THAT much in the next few years, the 2001-2003 A's were probably near the bottom too.

*EDIT* The reason why I put the post in this thread is to show evidence that it's not a TOTAL crapshoot (which I never really believed) and that there are certain characteristics that are common to most successful MLB playoff teams

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Nice post, Tom. This would also play into the Braves lack of success in the postseason because while they had tremendous starting pitching, their closers were always weak and blew a TON of games. Goes to show you how much a guy like Mariano Rivera is a factor is these games.

Course.. there have been a couple cases where it could be argued that offense won a world series like the 2002 Angels, for example.. However, they also had a great bullpen and great defense. their starting pitching was brutal though...

Dr. Giganto

I was wondering about the Braves' defense during that run, so I looked at BP's "Defensive Efficiency" standings, which basically ranks each team in terms of what percentage of balls put in play get turned into outs. Here is where the Braves ranked:

2006: 18
2005: 20
2004: 16
2003: 9
2002: 3
2001: 4
2000: 9
1999: 9
1998: 4
1997: 2
1996: 9
1995: 8
1994: 8
1993: 1
1992: 5

Yup, so it looks like they were good defensively too. Either they were unlucky or it was the closer is what did them in. Plus, once they got a dominant closer (Smoltz in 2002), the defense started to slip and the strikeout rates of the pitchers fell to the bottom half of the NL.

I think this is pretty interesting stuff. I like how they were able to identify the specific traits that successful postseason teams tend to have

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

I'd love if it you could do some research on the Yankees as well. I know you'd get a kick out of it being a Yankees fan, but I've always wondered what was so different about the Dynasty teams and the ones that have I guess.. failed in the postseason. Some of it is luck, I'm sure starting pitching might have something to do with it as well.. but what about the lineups?

I always hear radio guys/television analysts claim that the "Old Yankees" were more clutch than these new Yankees. I wonder if it's just a myth. Sure we have a lot of late game heroics to look back on, but how much of a difference is it, really..

Dr. Giganto

Well, here is the Yankees defensive efficiency ranking the last several years. The number is their rank in all of MLB:

2007: 14
2006: 4
2005: 22
2004: 24
2003: 28
2002: 17
2001: 25
2000: 10
1999: 7
1998: 1
1997: 16
1996: 22

Wow. Look at how they were one of the best defensive teams during the 1998-2000 streak of consecutive WS championships, and how they were pretty mediocre almost every other year (the 2006 number seems to be a fluke).

And it makes sense, I guess. Giambi is an awful defensive first baseman. Jeter is an awful defensive shortstop. Posada is an awful defensive catcher. Abreu and Matsui are mediocre in the field. Bernie Williams was awful his last few years. Cano and A-Rod are pretty good, and Melky is very good.

Now, I'll look at the strikeout ability of the pitchers. I'll use the AL rank, since NL pitchers get the benefit of pitching to the pitcher.

2007: 12
2006: 6
2005: 6
2004: 6
2003: 2
2002: 2
2001: 1
2000: 4
1999: 3
1998: 4
1997: 2
1996: 2

So, it looks like the strikeout rates of their pitchers have fallen off too.

So, of the 3 factors that the author identified (closer, defense, strikeout rate), the Yankees have been awesome at 1 (closer), and pregressively worse at the other two.

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Cool. It doesn't look like they're doing much better either.. I'd wager the Rays are near the tops in baseball in defense without even looking..

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

15th in fielding percentage.

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Well that's.. average.