Clutch stats

Dr. Giganto

I was just looking through some career splits for some guys, and I came across something interesting:

Barry Bonds Career OPS: 1.051
2 outs, RISP: 1.048
Late & Close: .990
Tie Game: 1.054
Within 1 R: 1.066
Within 2 Rs: 1.061
Within 3 Rs: 1.074
September: 1.054

Willie Mays career OPS: .934
2 outs, RISP: .982
Late & Close: .949
Tie Game: .914
Within 1 R: .909
Within 2 Rs: .929
Within 3 Rs: .932
September: .959

Cal Ripken career OPS: .787
2 outs, RISP: .774
Late & Close: .796
Tie Game: .761
Within 1 R: .794
Within 2 Rs: .779
Within 3 Rs: .782
September: .748

Reggie Jackson career OPS: .846
2 outs, RISP: .851
Late & Close: .804
Tie Game: .900
Within 1 R: .858
Within 2 Rs: .848
Within 3 Rs: .843
September: .821

Ozzie Smith career OPS: .665
2 outs, RISP: .624
Late & Close: .673
Tie Game: .646
Within 1 run: .661
Within 2 runs: .667
Within 3 runs: .663
September: .665

David Ortiz career OPS: .943
2 outs, RISP: .921
Late & Close: .974
Tie Game: 1.029
Within 1 run: .979
Within 2 runs: .977
Within 3 runs: .977
September: .956

Derek Jeter career OPS: .850
2 outs, RISP: .865
Late & Close: .806
Tie Game: .862
Within 1 run: .879
Within 2 runs: .868
Within 3 runs: .860
September: .882

Whats the point of all this? to show that the whole concept of "clutch" is way overblown. Good hitters (like Bonds and Wille Mays) will produce in clutch situations, almost exactly as well as in non-clutch situations. Shitty hitters (like Ozzie Smith) will perform almost exactly the same in clutch situations as in non-clutch situations.

Over time, if you give a player enough at-bats, that shit will even itself out. If you give a .300 hitter 10 clutch at-bats, he might go 1-for 10. But if you give him another 10, he might go 5-for-10. And if you give him 1000 clutch at-bats, he'll probably go 300-for-1000, or something close to it

I dont deny that there's certain people who deal with pressure better than others. But if they couldnt handle pressure, they wouldn't have been the .01% of all baseball players who make it all the way to the major leagues. So like, a .300 hitter might become like a .295 hitter in clutch situations, but I doubt you'll ever encounter a situation where a .300 hitter with a long career bats like .250 or .350 in clutch situations

So, remember that the next time you're inclined to refer to a player as "clutch" or "not clutch". The best "clutch" hitters are generally the ones that are simply the best hitters

CM Drunk

Good stuff. I shall rep you.

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Nice stuff.

Can you post Jeter's numbers, Ortiz, Manny, and A-Rod. Jeter, Manny, and Ortiz are all supposed to be huge in the clutch, while A-Rod supposedly struggles..

And if it's not too much trouble can we see the same numbers in "big games" meaning Sept. and Oct.

Dr. Giganto

I remember one time looking at Jeter and Ortiz's playoff numbers, and they were very similar to their regular season numbers. Bernie Williams too. The key is to look at guys who have a lot of at-bats in that situation. A guy who's played in 1 series and went 4-for-10, or 0-for-9 or something like that, his stats will be misleading

I'll look at the numbers for the guys you mentioned, as well as September numbers, either when I get home tonight or at work tomorrow. I have some stuff to wrap up here at work before I leave at 5...

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Cool. That's fine. I gotta go right now for a bit.

Dr. Giganto

Edited the original post to include September numbers, and added Ortiz and Jeter

The most interesting thing I discovered was Cal Ripken's monthly splits. His April-July numbers are pretty similar (and good) and then they get MUCH worse in August and September. That's probably a result of the consecutive games streak

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Ok, so while their Sept. OPS is a tad better than their career numbers, it's not overwhelming. Good stuff.

Dr. Giganto

Yeah, exactly.

There are some people who dont believe that "clutchness" exists at all, that it's just luck. Or rather, they think clutchness exists, but that EVERY major league baseball player has either the same amount of the clutchness or close to it

Personally, I wouldn't go that far. I think that in everyday life there are people who handle pressure better than others, and the same has got to be true in MLB. But like I said in a previous post, the difference is not THAT big. A good hitter is a good hitter is a good hitter. If your goal is to score as many runs as possible, you would want Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols at the plate no matter what the situation is, whether it's the top of the first with nobody on or bottom of the ninth in a tie game. At the same time, you wouldnt want a guy like Doug Mientkiewicz, even if his "clutchness" was a little above average, because it would only make his mediocre stats mildly better

Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada have reputations as clutch hitters, and they were AWFUL in the ALDS. Derek Jeter grounded into three double plays in the last two games. He had a KILLER double play in Game 4, with 1st and 3rd and 1 out. In game 1, Jorge Posada came up with the 1st and 2nd one out, and he struck out. A few innings later, the Yankees had bases loaded 1 out, and Sabathia went to a 3-0 count on Posada. Sabathia had been wild all game, and the Yankees refused to swing at his pitches out of the zone. Damon, Abreu, and A-Rod had done a great job of not swinging at pitches out of the zone. The 3-0 pitch was a strike that Posada fouled off. Posada then swung at 4 consecutive pitches that were out of the strike zone, any one of which would have been ball 4, scoring a run, and bringing Matsui up with the bases loaded and one out.

Plus, Posada kinda half-assed the two wild pitches that Joba Chamberlain threw in Game 2. He tried to stab at them with his glove, instead of getting his body in front of them to block them.

Sorry I went off on a rant here, but it kinda drives me crazy how Jeter and Posada get a free pass when they have an absolutely atrocious series, and A-Rod had a better series than basically any Yankee except Robinson Cano (Note: Every Yankee hitter sucked in the ALDS) and people are talking about A-Rod's lack of "clutchness", despite the fact that when his team had their backs to the wall, down 0-2 and playing at home, A-Rod went 4-for-9 (.444) and hit a HR to pull within 3 runs of the Indians in Game 4.

People keep saying it was a "meaningless" home run, but what if it had led to a big rally that inning? What if Posada's long foul ball off Borowski had been two feet to the left, amking it a 1-run game. Would it have been meaningless then?

The entire line-up batted around after A-Rod's home-run, and all they could scrape together was a solo HR from Abreu.

The ALDS was not A-Rod's fault. He maybe didnt have a great series, but Jeter, Posada, Matsui, and Wang were all considerably worse. And nobody except for Cano, rivera, and maybe Abreu struck me as having really good series.

But now, because supposedly A-Rod isnt "clutch", the NY media and stupid fucking Yankee fans are going to drive him out of the city.

Goddamn, I'm pissed off lol

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

I love the fact that A-Rod's homers always mean nothing it seems.

Dr. Giganto

It's like the guys on Fire Joe Morgan said, here's the breakdown of A-Rod's homeruns:

Innings 1-3: Too early, meaningless
Innings 4-6: Still too early, meaningless
Innings 7-9 Yankees losing: Too little, too late. Meaningless
Innings 7-9, Yankees winning: Just piling it on. Meaningless

btw, they were being sarcastic