I Am So Smart

Dr. Giganto

Sports Moderator

On August 16th, I wrote this in the Comments section of a blog I read:

"The Mariners have outscored their opponents by a grand total of 6 runs this year. Six. The Yankees have outscored their opponents by a grand total of 149 runs. The Mariners are the very definition of a team that has gotten lucky and has a much better record than they should have. I can almost guarantee that the Mariners go .500 or worse the rest of the way."

Since I wrote that, the Mariners have gone 7-10, including a 9-game losing streak. They also lost the 2 games before I made that statement, so they are 7-12 in their last 19.

Since then, the Mariners run differential has shrunk to 2 runs. They have scored 2 more runs than they've allowed (not counting today's game). The MAriners are a .500 team thats gotten ridiculously lucky. I will be absolutely shocked if they win the Wild Card over the Yankees and Tigers (who are a legitimately good team)

Dr. Giganto

Sports Moderator

oh, and by that same logic, anybody who thinks Arizona (outscored by 36 runs this year) is winning that division is out of their fucking minds...

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

You're right, I don't see the Mariners doing shit after these past two weeks where they've fallen apart.

Bad timing on your post I guess with the M's having a 6-1 lead over the Yanks. I still think something is majorly wrong with this Yankees team. They sweep the Sox, then lost 2 to the D-Rays, now losing to Seattle who has lost 9 straight.

Dr. Giganto

Sports Moderator

Baseball Prospectus currently has the chances of winning the wild card as such (figured out by running a computer simulation of the rest of the season 1 million times):

Yankees: 56.2%
Tigers: 18.1%
Mariners: 17.8%
Indians: 3.8% (The Tigers have a 9.7% chance of catching them)
Blue Jays: 1.7%
Angels 1.3% (Mariners have a 2.1% chance of catching them)
Red Sox .85% (Yankees have a .88% chance of catching them)
Twins: .23%
Athletics: .04%

The Red Sox chances of making the playoffs is currently 99.9678%

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

If the Yankees have a 56% chance of winning the wild card, then that's means they have a 44% chance of not winning it. I know.. basic math, but when you look at it that way, the haters still have a shot of them not making the playoffs. No doubt heads would roll.

Dr. Giganto

Sports Moderator

I reiterate...Seattle sucks

Joe Cool

Administrator