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I Am So Smart

This is a discussion on I Am So Smart within the North American Sports forums, part of the Sports Forums category; On August 16th, I wrote this in the Comments section of a blog I read: "The Mariners have outscored their ...

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Old 09-03-2007, 04:06 PM   #1 (permalink)
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I Am So Smart
On August 16th, I wrote this in the Comments section of a blog I read:

"The Mariners have outscored their opponents by a grand total of 6 runs this year. Six. The Yankees have outscored their opponents by a grand total of 149 runs. The Mariners are the very definition of a team that has gotten lucky and has a much better record than they should have. I can almost guarantee that the Mariners go .500 or worse the rest of the way."

Since I wrote that, the Mariners have gone 7-10, including a 9-game losing streak. They also lost the 2 games before I made that statement, so they are 7-12 in their last 19.

Since then, the Mariners run differential has shrunk to 2 runs. They have scored 2 more runs than they've allowed (not counting today's game). The MAriners are a .500 team thats gotten ridiculously lucky. I will be absolutely shocked if they win the Wild Card over the Yankees and Tigers (who are a legitimately good team)
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:08 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: I Am So Smart
oh, and by that same logic, anybody who thinks Arizona (outscored by 36 runs this year) is winning that division is out of their fucking minds...
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:27 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: I Am So Smart
You're right, I don't see the Mariners doing shit after these past two weeks where they've fallen apart.

Bad timing on your post I guess with the M's having a 6-1 lead over the Yanks. I still think something is majorly wrong with this Yankees team. They sweep the Sox, then lost 2 to the D-Rays, now losing to Seattle who has lost 9 straight.
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Old 09-04-2007, 03:10 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: I Am So Smart
Baseball Prospectus currently has the chances of winning the wild card as such (figured out by running a computer simulation of the rest of the season 1 million times):

Yankees: 56.2%
Tigers: 18.1%
Mariners: 17.8%
Indians: 3.8% (The Tigers have a 9.7% chance of catching them)
Blue Jays: 1.7%
Angels 1.3% (Mariners have a 2.1% chance of catching them)
Red Sox .85% (Yankees have a .88% chance of catching them)
Twins: .23%
Athletics: .04%

The Red Sox chances of making the playoffs is currently 99.9678%
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Old 09-04-2007, 05:36 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: I Am So Smart
If the Yankees have a 56% chance of winning the wild card, then that's means they have a 44% chance of not winning it. I know.. basic math, but when you look at it that way, the haters still have a shot of them not making the playoffs. No doubt heads would roll.
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Old 09-08-2007, 11:01 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: I Am So Smart
I reiterate...Seattle sucks
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Old 09-08-2007, 11:31 PM   #7 (permalink)
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