This is a discussion on Need some fantasy football advice...... within the North American Sports forums, part of the Sports Forums category; Alright so our leagues draft is next Saturday.
Quick breakdown.
12 teams 200 dollar cap, 3 holdovers max from previous ...
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12 teams 200 dollar cap, 3 holdovers max from previous year at 20% increase of last years salary.
Here is what I am thinking of doing.....
Basically my only good holdover is Steven Jackson at 26 dollars this upcoming season.
I was thinking of offering (and it will probably get accepted) Jackson for Frank Gore and Alex Smith.
Smith a $2 for this year and Gore is $4. This gives me a starting QB (alot of the good ones are gone) and a cheaper RB that I can holdover for 2 additional years longer than Steven Jackson.
Obviously Jackson is better, but would I be getting a good deal out of it?
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Whats the scoring system? Do you get a point per reception? Jackson caught 90 passes last year, which is something to keep in mind.
In my league's scoring system, Jackson averaged 26.0 fantasy points per week (2nd among RBs), and Gore was 20.2 (5th among RBs). Alex Smith was 24th among QBs, having been outscored by such luminaries as Chad Pennington, JP Losman, and Sexy Rexy Grossman.
If you think you can really do something with the cap space, then I might do it. But without taking salaries into account, there's no chance in hell I make the trade, especially if it's a point-per-reception league.
Do you know who all the other holdovers are? And who will be available to you to use the cap space on? That will have a huge bearing on whether or not you should do the trade
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I play in a PPR league and I still think Jackson's 2006 reception numbers were an aberration. The Rams drafted a running back (Brian Leonard) who has very good hands, and I expect they'll want to reduce Jackson's workload a little bit this year. Also, Frank Gore caught 61 balls himself last year, good enough for third among RBs (I think).
If it seriously comes down to Jackson for one year at WAY more money than Gore for three years, I don't see any reason not to make this trade (nor do I understand why the Gore owner would make it).
Yup, Gore was 4th among RBs in receptions. The only other thing to consider is Gore's injury history.
To sum:
Gore tore his left ACL in 2002
Tore his right ACL in 2003
Missed 2 game sin 2005 with a groin injury
Had surgery on both shoulders following the 2005 season
Broke a bone in his hand this preseason
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I'm a Gore owner in a dynasty league, so I love the guy.
The hand injury may actually be a blessing if it means he conserves energy (ala Tomlinson) and doesn't get seriously injured prior to the regular season; it also may impact his already-suspect fumbling issues, and possibly receiving skills.
It depends on your pick number and it depends on your scoring system, but the general rule is to take a RB with your first pick, and often times also your second pick.
As for defense, if it's not Chicago or Baltimore, don't even bother until the end of the draft.
Slim, for your first round pick, you should snatch up any of the these RBs without a moment's hesitation if they are available: Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson
Most people stockpile running backs in the first two rounds, so I like to go against them. Last year, I had the 11th pick (out of 12) in one of my drafts and I took Steve Smith and T.O. in the first two rounds. We get 1 point per reception (some leagues dont give points per reception). Steve Smith outscored all but the top 5 RBs, and T.O. outscored all but the top 7 RBs. So, if you have a late-position pick in the first round, I think it's better to take elite WRs instead of mid-level RBs. Smith and Owens were the 2nd and 4th highest scoring WRs last year.
Then, I snatched up Willie Parker (7th-best RB last year) in the 3rd round and Ahman Green (11th best in '06) muich later. I also got Laurence Maroney in like the 11th round. So, you can easily uncover late-round sleeper RBs. Maurice Jones-Drew (8th best RB last year) didnt get drafted. Reggie Bush (9th best RB) went in the 7th round).
Also, RBs are more susceptible to injury. You generally know what you're getting from WRs, so the risk-reward ratio for WRs is better.
Another thing to consider is how many people at each position you start. We start 3 WRs per week, which means that there are 36 WRs starting in a given week. The 36th ranked WR was Bernard Berrian, at 10.9 fantasy points per week. If each team starts 2 RBs, then there are 24 starting RBs. The 24th best RB was Jamal Lewis, at 12.0 points per week. In fact, Lewis scored more points than the next 7 receivers ahead of Berrian. The lower-tier WRs are really bad. So, I think getting 3 elite WRs will put you ahead of the curve, assuming you can make some wise choices with mid-to-late round RBs.
The only QB you should even think about taking in the first round is Peyton Manning. After Manning, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, and Marc Bulger are usually good a lot of points. I would consider taking Palmer or Bulger in the 3rd round, Bulger maybe in the 4th. There is a big group of QBs that are all in a bunch: Brady, Garcia, Cutler, Kitna, Rivers, and Hasselbeck all were within 1 point per week of each other. If you extend the range to 1.5 points per week, you can throw in Eli Manning and Vince Young. Tony Romo will probably also fall into this range this year. Roethlisberger, who had a bad year and was right behind Eli in points per week last year, can also fit into this narrow range. Thus, if you don't get one of the elite QBs, you should wait until you have all the other positions filled up before taking one. QBs are generally interchangable.
As for defense, it's generally unimportant. But, if you can jump onthe Bears or Ravens early, you'll probably be in good shape. The New England defense was the third best defense at 10.7 fabtasy points per game last year. Chicago, however, averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game last year and Baltimore averaged 15.0 fantasy points per week last year. That's a big jump. So, taking one of those defenses in like the 6th round is a pretty good bet. The difference between the Ravens and the average defense is so much bigger than whatever offensive player you pass up in the 6th round and the guy you end up taking one round later.
Keep this in mind also: The Ravens outscored the 12th-best running back last year, the 17th-best wide receiver, and EVERY Tight End. The Bears also outscored every Tight End.
Hope that helps...
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