How come some people think being ignorant is cool?

Dr. Giganto

Sports Moderator

This is a blog that I stumbled across...it's indicative of the idiocy of some baseball fans out there:

Slobbermetrics, How Bill James and Math Nearly Destroyed Baseball Jul 08, 2007 | 1:54AM | report this Sabermetrics, is the Scientology of baseball. It all started in a tiny, airless, room, where the guy who got picked last in Little League, perfected his revenge. This handy guide will help clear up the wildest misconceptions spread by this extremely annoying and exceedingly irrelevant cult. Definition. Sabermetrics is also known as, long winded pointless dissertation, insufferable boors with calculators, or guys with pocket protectors. If you're like me, you don't need to know the equation for cracking oil to figure out you got a batch of bad gas in your car. Or live near the Devil Rays or Royals, to realize beauty might be skin deep but bad goes all the way through. Humor. Sabermites believe they have a sense of humor. Sadly, it can only be expressed mathmatically. Reality. Using pseudo-algebraic conclusions to describe the infinite intangibles of great baseball is like using cement to describe Mozart. Abstract baseball minutia stacked like pancakes doesn't get around the real consistent opinion voiced by those who watch baseball daily and this churns the guts of Sabermites. Initialize. Acronyms sow maximum confusion. Sabermites concoct bewildering thickets of initials around feeble wild BLEEP guessing. EqA's are as likely to stick a homemade shank in VORP's as they are to end up drunk at Bill James annual Christmas party where King Herod's win shares always make trading for the baby Jesus look silly. Equate. Never allow anyone near the prime equation of sabermetrics, A+B=Shut the Hell Up. This is sports for math club members. Gross Tonnage. The complicated formula for "Hey that guy just bunted the runner to second..." would fill this entire page. SABER stat-bot hysteria amply illustrates the "Star Trek Factor," now that Kirk's too fat to worship, Sabermites invented an arcane statistical abstract to replace dialectic Klingon arguments that made their life worth living... Strength of Nattering (SON). Sabermite's tirelessly redefine everything in SABER-speak, until, the non-SABER person drops from exhaustion or retreats to a sport like ice curling. Value. According to SABER dogma, a single just isn't worth a double. Take that Ty Cobb, you BLEEP because 75% of your hits aren't all that and a bag of SABER chips. Slide Rule Its not, never slide head first, its never attend a game of baseball without a slide rule, so you'll have something to look at. Worship the Stat Gods Barry Bonds is a perfect example, the thought of losing all those succulent steroid drenched numbers sends the average Sabermite into a slobbery, mad dog, frenzy. They would rather chew off the non-math lobe of their brain than let go, or admit, that Barry might indeed be full of nincompoop. What Can You Do? I know the answer to every problem is "sing a song" but if organizing a world wide series of concerts is beyond your grasp, try these simple SABER killing phrases: "Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts." Albert Einstein "The last time I checked baseball is best played on a field and not on a calculator." "People who count don't."

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Basically, the point of this article is to say that people who use advanced statistical methods to evaluate baseball players are nerds who live in their parents basement, have never been laid and have no athletic ability whatsoever.

What sabermetrics does is attempt to give us more information about the game that we know and love. It's about using logic, reason, and tangible evidence to evaluate player's and management strategies. How is that hurtful to baseball?

Think about it like this: Let's say you are put in charge of managing a portfolio of investments. The total value of the portfolio is $100 million, and if you mismanage it, your investors will be really mad and you'll get fired.

When trying to figure out which stocks to buy, you have a few easily accessible pieces of information to assess the companies, such as sales, net profits, cash balances, debt, etc.

Now, somebody comes to you and says "Hey, I have evidence that there is a better way to predict what are good stocks and what are bad ones. I've looked at thousands upon thousands of examples of cmpanies over several decades, and on average, stocks that exhibit this characteristic perform 25% better than stocks that don't. Take a look at it"

Now, wouldn't you look at the guy's formula, and at least give it a chance? Considering you are responsible for managing $100 million of other people's money?

Or, if you were an investor yourself, would you pick the money manager that just looks a sales and profits, or would you pick the manager that takes everything into account, and has a system for identifying which aspects of a company's finances makes it more likely to succeed? Obviously, you would pick the manager that uses more complete information, and a more sophisticated, logical, reasonable approach.

In the above example, you can basically replace "money manager" with "MLB GM", replace "stock/investment" with "baseball player", and replace "sales/profits/cash/debt" with "batting average/homeruns/RBIs/runs scored". Managing a major league roster is just like managing a portfolio of investments.

It is in a GM's best interests to have these stats available to them. The owner of a team gives a GM $100 millionand says "manage that money and give me an acceptable return". And the best way to do so is to use as much information as possible.

So, Bill James (one of the most prominent sabremetricians ever...possibly the most prominent) has actually done more to help the game of baseball than to nearly destroy it.

Case in point: The major tenet of sabermetrics is that batting average is a flawed measure of performance. A guy who hits .300 but only walks 20 times a year is obviously less valuable than a guy who has the same batting average, but walks 100 times a year. On-base % gives you more information, so it is a better indicator of a player's value.

When Gene Michael took over as GM of the Yankees, he discovered something interesting about the Yankees underperforming roster. They NEVER walked. The 1991 Yankees, who finished 12th in the American League, had a middle-of-the-pack batting average, but were 12th in OBP. As a result, they struggled to score runs, because they did not have enough base-runners to be scored when the team got hits.

In 1991, the team drew 473 walks and won 71 games, scoring 677 runs. In 1992, the team drew 536 walks and won 76 games, scoring 733 runs. In 1993, the team drew 629 walks, winning 88 games and scoring 821 runs. This is NOT a coincidence.

Gene Michael was smart enough to use this nonconventional method of analysis, and it helped the Yankees become the jugeernaut they were in the late 1990's.

And, the obvious example is Billy Beane in Oakland.

Plus, the Boston Red Sox are major believers in sabermetrics. That's worked out pretty well for them.

Information is good. Mathematics doesn't lie. On-base percentage is more highly correlated with runs scored than on-base percentage. Thus, you're better off having a player with a .280 batting average and a .390 OBP than a .300 hitter with a .330 OBP.

Sabermetricians aren't "stat-nerds". Sabermetricians are people who care so much about the game of baseball, they want to understand it better, and REALLY understand what it is that makes teams successful. Sabermetricians are people who aren't satisfied relying on archaic, misleading stats (like RBI, which tells you more about the line-up around the hitter than the hitter himself), and listening to awful announcers like Tim McCarver spout opinions on baseball that are not based on any hard evidence, but on speculation and guesswork.

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

Well that about sums up me

Some sabermetric stats I find interesting however, it is true that there are certain unmeasureables.

Dakstang

MMA Moderator

Hmm....I don't agree with this guy but I do think statistics in baseball is over kill.

I mean damn, a normal person cannot understand that stuff. You have to have an advanced knowledge in baseball to even understand what those stats mean.

I have neither the patience or interest to learn either.

Stop talkin' bout stayin' the course
You keep on beatin' that old dead horse
You know they lied about why we went to War
I can't take it no more

Simon

Founder/Admin

For instance, you could throw all the positive stats and logic at me, but I would jave told you that J.D. Drew was a terrible fit for Boston.