What's bigger: 500 HR's or 3,000 hits?

Dr. Giganto

wow, I never knew that. Good info.

It's interesting, I just looked up Rose's stats, and I thought to myself "to pile up all those hits, he must have NEVER walked...he must have swung and made contact basically every time at bat, to accumulate that many hits with a good-but-not-great batting average."

But I was wrong...he has a career OBP of .375, and his 162-game average is 71 walks a season.

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Just a long career and most likely he didnt suffer from many injuries..but this is my point. Not a tremendous average for the all-time hit king.

Ty Cobb on the other hand had a career average, I believe, somewhere around .350

Dr. Giganto

Well, I think 500 home runs is more impressive than 3000 hits, but I also think the gap has narrowed. Like, 3000 hits is closer to 500 home runs than it was like 20 years ago or sometime around then.

Think about it like this: There are so many things that have benefited power hitters in the last 20 years. smaller ballparks, steroids, a new focus on legitimate strength training, expansion diluting the pitching pool, medical advances helping people recover from injuries faster, etc. While all these factors also help hit toal, I think their effect on home run totals are greater.

Also, getting to 3000 hits isnt as easy as just hanging around untilyou get there. First of all, you have to be good enough to hang around that long. If you can't hit, teams won't keep you around to let you get there. Secondly, 3000 hits is a LOT of hits. That's 200 hits a year for 15 years. It's still pretty hard to get to. Plus, people arent reaching 3000 hits at nearly the pace that people are reaching 500 home runs.

Just a note: of the top 100 home-run hitters of all-time, 42 are either active or retired within the last 10 years (not counting Eddie Murray, who retired in 1997)

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Fair points Tom as always. I just think 500 is more magical. Usually when a guy reaches 500 home runs, he's been a superstar in the game for more then a decade. There's nobody like Biggio in the 500 club who was just a "good" player..

Dr. Giganto

Put another way, there are 20 active players in the top 100 home-run list, and only 9 active players in the top 100 for hits.

11 of the top 50 home-run hitters are still active. Only 2 of the top 50 "hits-men" are still active (Bonds and Biggio).

Biggio is the only active player with 3000 hits. There are more active players with 600 home runs than 3000 hits. There are 4 active players with 500 home runs, and 3 more with a good chance to get there this year. Sheffield will probably get there next year if he plays again.

The only active player within 400 hits of 3000 is Bonds (2902). If Bonds retires after this year, he won't make it to 3000. Next after him is Julio Franco, at 2597.

After that, it's two guys who won't make it (Steve Finley and Omar Vizquel, at 2548 and 2539). Then, Griffey has a decent shot (2494 at age 37...would need three more good, healthy seasons). Sheffield (2483 at age 38) could get there if he sticks around.

After that it's Luis Gonzalez (2459 at age 39...I say no), Pudge Rodriguez (2439 at age 35...might get there), Sammy Sosa (needs 626 more...he might come close, but I say no), Kenny Lofton (needs 636, and he's 40 years old. I say no), Frank Thomas (age 39, needs 668...I say no), and Jeff Kent (age 39, needs 728 more hits. I say no way)

Then Jeter will probably get. He's 33 and needs 733 (4 seasons) to get there. Those are all the guys who have more than 2200 hits. Of that list, the only slam dunk is Jeter. I'd say one or two of the "maybes" (Bonds, Pudge, Griffey, Sheff) gets there, and that's it

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Ok, lets look at this a different way. The 20 names listed below represent the top 20 in the majors in hits.. You will see some superstar names on this list, Jeter, Ichiro, Vlad, etc.. but then you have people who are just "good" or "solid" players including Juan Pierre who you can't stand Tom lol.

If I brought up the top 20 in terms of home runs, there wouldn't be any Gary Matthews on that list.. it'd be the best all around hitters in baseball. I still believe it's easier to compile hits then it is homers, even in this steroid-era..

Ichiro Suzuki
Michael Young
Derek Jeter
Miguel Tejada
5 Juan Pierre
6 Chase Utley
7 Vladimir Guerrero
Freddy Sanchez
9 Garrett Atkins
10 Rafael Furcal
Matt Holliday
Miguel Cabrera
Gary Matthews Jr.
Jose Reyes
15 Jimmy Rollins
16 Justin Morneau
Grady Sizemore
18 Carlos Lee
19 Vernon Wells
Hanley Ramirez

Slimdust

whats wrong with mathews jr? lol

I didnt look up the stats or anything, but is it possible that the list of the top homerun hiiters are not really the best hitters but the most popular? after all home runs get you on sports center, not a line drive into right center gap...

Just a thought

Freak

I haven't really had anything to add to this topic, but your post got me wondering about a certain player, and the results were a bit mind-blowing:

By the end of this season, barring injury, Ichiro should be hovering around 1,600 hits, shortly after which he will turn 34. It took him a remarkable seven years to reach that total. Ichiro is the kind of guy whose body will either break down quickly with age, or allow him to play at a high level for many more years -- and considering what a remarkable physical specimen he is, I wouldn't be surprised if it's the latter. Therefore, if he somehow managed to continue his current career pace (which would be even more remarkable, granted), he would need only to play until he's 40 to reach 3,000 hits (having began his MLB career at 27).

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Yup. Ichiro has been a God since his debut. Just look at the all-star game this year. He is on the biggest stage (well.. for a Mariner) and he tears the cover off the ball. Honestly, there is nothing he couldnt do on a baseball field. I sometimes wonder why he doesnt hit more then 8-10 home runs every year. I guess he is just worried about getting on base first. He has the pop in his bat to put up 20-25 I bet..

Then theres his blazing speed, his great play in the field, he would definitely be worth the $20M a year he is reportedly close to getting from the Ms.

Freak

If his blinding speed is the most spectacular thing about Ichiro, his arm strength can't be too far off. We get a lot of Mariners games here in the northwest, and I remember clearly the first time I saw him mow down a baserunner from right field -- his throwing motion is one of the most graceful, fluid motions in sports.