The should-be all-star teams

Dr. Giganto

Yeah, it was tough leaving Cordero off, because he leads the NL in saves, but the thing about saves is that they're extremely dependent on the situations that your team puts you in during the first 8 innings of the game.

Like, having more saves doesn't make you a better pitcher. It usually just means your team has had a lead of 3 runs or less going intothe ninth inning more often.

Cordero isn't having a "better" year than Wagner, Saito, or Hoffman. Hell, even Jason Isringhausen is having a better year than Cordero, ERA- and WHIP-wise. It's just that Cordero's team is better, so he accumulates more saves, because he's had 13 more save opportunities than Izzy.

For instance, baseballprospectus.com has a stat that attempts to analyze relief pitcher performance. It takes into account the "leverage" of the situation, which means that entering the game with the bases loaded up by one with nobody out counts more than closing out a game with a three-run lead. Francisco Cordero currently ranks 19th in this statistic.

I realize that the vast majority of baseball fans have spent their entire lives focusing on imperfect stats like saves, won-loss records, RBIs, etc. I, however, tend to focus on stats that are not dependent on the situation that the rest of your team puts you in (i.e. on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs for hitters, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts for pitchers)

That said, leaving Cordero off was a very difficult decision, but one I'm willing to live with

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

But wouldn't it be more impressive to have 35 saves without a blown one then to have 25 without a blown one?

I guess what I'm saying is that there are situations where a team is more dependent on their closer then another team would be, like Mariano is his day for example, and therefore if he's getting the job done each time out, he's more valuable to that team..

Dr. Giganto

What's more impressive: Coming into a game with a 3-run lead 35 times and giving up one or two runs in every save situation and having an ERA of 5.00, or protecting 25 one-run leads and having an ERA of 1.00

I'll say the latter

The relief pitcher can't dictate the situation he has when he enters the game. If a player's team doesn't put the pitcher in a lot of "save situations", then there's nothing the reliever can do to accumulate saves.

Saves are not a good stat to use when comparing pitchers. ERA and WHIP are considerably better

For instance, who's having the better year: Joe Borowski, with 25 saves but an ERA of 5.51 and WHIP of 1.50, or Jonathon Papelbon, who only has 19 saves, but an ERA of 1.74 and a WHIP of 0.87.

Something tells me if you gave those guys an equal number of "save opportunities", with an equal number of
one-, two-, and three-run leads, Papelbon would end up with more saves. Because Papelbon is the better pitcher, despite having less saves than Borowski

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

I guess I was basing it on how mnay pressure situations a guy has to deal with on a consistant basis. It's kind of like how the MVP award is judged. A guy could have a great season but if his team sucks around him, he's done.. With a relief pitcher, the guy would also be considred more valuable if he's accumulating saves during a pennant race then when there's 2,000 people in the stands and nobody cares..

Dr. Giganto

Another problem with the save stat is that it causes managers to make poor decisions when managing their roster. For instance:

In a game about a week ago, the Yankees were playing a game on the road, and it was tied going into the ninth inning. Rather than bring Mariano Rivera into the game, Joe torre chose to save him for a "save situation" and he brought Scott Procter into the game instead. Procter proceeded to load the bases, and then walk in the winning run.

The Cleveland Indians did the same thing recently, saving their closer, Joe Borowski, and brought a pitcher with an ERA of almost 6.00 into the game, who proceeded to give up the winning run.

Also, think about it like this: Let's say hypothetically the Yankees are leading the Twins by one run going into the eigth inning, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter coming up in the bottom of thr 8th. The next three hitters are Jason Kubel (batting .242), Nick Punto (.202), and Jason Bartlett (.254).

Conventional wisdom would be to save your closer for the 9th inning. However, you'd be better off bringing in Mariano Rivera to face the dangerous Mauer/Morneau/Hunter trio in the 8th, and bring in somebody like Scott Procter to face the scrubs at the bottom of the order

Danny Diamond

Founder/Admin

Thank you Japan.

Okajima has been an absolute blessing for the Red Sox. Due to Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen crapping out early in spring training the Sox looked like they were in trouble.

In a ironic twist, the very first pitch Okajima threw was a homerun. He has only let up 3 more runs since. Not too shabby.

That was really fun to read guys.

Suntan Superman

WC's Resident Samoan

Damn >.< I was hoping Pat Neshek would win