This is a discussion on Bonds vs. A-Rod within the North American Sports forums, part of the Sports Forums category; If you had to guess, which one do you think will hold the all-time home run record at the end ...
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While I don't like the fact that Bonds will soon own the home run record, I still think he will have more at the end of his career than A-Rod will at his.
Part of me thinks A-Rod will slow down in the next few years. He's still pretty young, but I don't see him beating Hank and Bonds.
If he stays healthy, A-Rod could be the first player to crack 800 home runs. I've heard some basevall writers saying he could even pass 900.
As of right now, A-Rod has 478 home runs. Let's say he hits 46 this year (32 more than what he has now), that would give him 510 at the end of this year, at age 32. If he averages 35 home runs (his lowest HR total since 1997, so that's a pretty conservative estimate) a year, he would have 545 at age 33, 580 at age 34, 615 at age 35, 650 at age 35, 685 at age 36, 720 at age 37, and 755 at age 38.
So, given that conservative number, he would probably pass Aaron. Given a more reasonable estimate, like 40 home runs a year, he would have 790 home runs at age 38. 800 is definitely in the realm of possibility. Bt of course, he would need to stay productive (not a problem), and injury-free (so far, not a problem)
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By the way, here's an interestng tidbit from baseballprospectus.com:
As for Rodriguez`s over-hyped lack of `clutch` compared to David Ortiz, even though Big Papi was more likely to hit a home run when Boston was trailing, A-Rod was more likely to homer when the game was scoreless or tied. Since Boston`s record when trailing after seven was 6-53 (the Yankees posted a major league best 13-58 record when trailing after seven), it`s hard to argue to they derived a significantly great benefit from their DH`s late-inning heroics. The team that gets ahead first wins most of the time, and Rodriguez was best at doing that less dramatic, but essential, work.
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Tomm Dog you have A rod turning 35 twice, plus that 6-53 record for the sox does not reflect all of their comebacks, what about games they trailed after 8 innings or going into the bottom of the ninth. Papi has been robbed of the MVP the last two years. He himself has more than 6 game winning hits over that time, he is my hero.
oh I forgot the question, Bonds will probably have the record for a long time. A-rod still eill have to hit another 300 thats alot, he will need to be injury free and have a long career to make it happen, I would bet against it.
my bad...make those final numbers at age 39...so if he plays to 40, he has a real good chance of cracking 800.
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Papi has been robbed of the MVP the last two years.
He certainly was not "robbed" either year, especially 2006. He had a legitimate chance in 2005, but lost out to an equally, if not more, deserving contender. Their offensive numbers were almost equal, and A-Rod actually plays the field (and does it well), whereas Ortiz's defensive contribution is zero, zip, zilch. If he's going to win as a DH he better be definitively better offensively than the next guy, and that wasn't the case in 2005.
As for last year, you could make a fair case that Ortiz wasn't even in the top 5. I dont necessarily believe that, but you could make that arguement. If I were an MVP voter, I certainly wouldn't have voted him for first place.
Also, that 6-53 record thing was in 2005 alone, just to clear that up.
This isn't me trying to put down Ortiz. Ortiz is an absolutely amazing hitter. I admire Ortiz so much that in my fantasy baseball league, I took him before Ryan Howard and Jose Reyes, two players that almost EVERYBODY had ranked ahead of Ortiz. Being the second best player in an entire league for an entire year is nothing to scoff at.
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Hmmm, this begs the question. Can A-Rod do HGH and Steriods soon? If so he will blow away Bonds records. Drugs are the only reason Bonds has even come close to this record, so if you ask me he can go fuck himself. Hank Aaron is and will be the all time home run champion in many peoples eyes.
On the other topic. In my baseball opinion it should be next to impossible for anyone on the Red Sox or Yankees to be the MVP when they clearly have such good supporting casts. Although the whole title of 'MVP' has lost its original meaning. Instead of the most valuable player to their team, its become more of a 'best offensive player in baseball' award.
I actually think Bonds could be the 1st player to crack 800 home runs. The way he's hitting this year, who's to say he won't change his mind and come back for another year or a year after that?
Not to say A-Rod is using anything, because it'd be all speculation and not fair to him at all, but Danny.. HGH isn't tested for an from what I understand never will be.
Every single player in the league could be on it.
To answer my own question, I think A-Rod will end up with more homers then Bonds. The guy coul very well hit over 50 every fucking year. He's definitely proven to be durable.
Pujols is something else.. but that's years an years away from this discussion.
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