[Dr. Giganto]

In his first year at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein combined his eye for talent, his broad network of sources and his unique blend of skills analysis and performance analysis to bring minor-league coverage to BP. Now, he synthesizes that information into a complete ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game.

1. Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals, 23
2. Philip Hughes, RHP, Yankees, 21
3. Delmon Young, OF, Devil Rays, 21
4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds, 21
5. Brandon Wood, SS, Angels, 22
6. Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants, 23
7. Cameron Maybin, OF, Tigers, 20
8. Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks, 23
9. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds, 20
10. Evan Longoria, 3B, Devil Rays, 21
11. Reid Brignac, SS, Devil Rays, 21
12. Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers, 23
13. Matt Garza, RHP, Twins, 23
14. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Brewers, 21
15. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates, 20
16. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers, 19
17. Andrew Miller, LHP, Tigers, 22
18. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets, 18
19. Adam Miller, RHP, Indians, 22
20. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers, 23
21. Billy Butler, OF, Royals, 21
22. Jose Tabata, OF, Yankees, 18
23. Luke Hochevar, RHP, Royals, 23
24. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies, 22
25. Jeff Niemann, RHP, Devil Rays, 24
26. Philip Humber, RHP, Mets, 24
27. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Orioles, 19
28. Nick Adenhart, RHP, Angels, 21
29. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks, 19
30. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Mets, 23
31. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Diamondbacks, 21
32. Scott Elbert, LHP, Dodgers, 21
33. Franklin Morales, LHP, Rockies, 21
34. Carlos Gomez, OF, Mets, 21
35. Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Indians, 22
36. Donald Veal, LHP, Cubs, 22
37. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Phillies, 20
38. Eric Hurley, RHP, Rangers, 21
39. Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies, 21
40. Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays, 19
41. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Red Sox, 22
42. Felix Pie, OF, Cubs, 22
43. Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays, 23
44. Adam Jones, OF, Mariners, 21
45. Jacob McGee, LHP, Devil Rays, 20
46. Jason Hirsh, RHP, Rockies, 25
47. Hunter Pence, OF, Astros, 24
48. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox, 23
49. Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies, 24
50. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals, 20
51. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Braves, 22
52. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres, 25
53. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds, 23
54. James Loney, 1B/OF, Dodgers, 23
55. Billy Rowell, 3B, Orioles, 18
56. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Yankees, 21
57. Troy Patton, LHP, Astros, 21
58. John Danks, LHP, White Sox, 22
59. Jeff Clement, C, Mariners, 24
60. Trevor Crowe, OF, Indians, 23
61. Edinson Volquez, RHP, Rangers, 23
62. Daric Barton, 1B, Athletics, 21
63. Sean West, RHP, Marlins, 21
64. Angel Villalona, 3B, Giants, 16
65. Humberto Sanchez, RHP, Yankees, 24
66. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Rockies, 23
67. Travis Buck, OF, Athletics, 23
68. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Marlins, 20
69. Ryan Sweeney, OF, White Sox, 22
70. Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies, 22
71. Christopher Volstad, RHP, Marlins, 20
72. Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox, 24
73. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP, Giants, 24
74. Brandon Morrow, RHP, Mariners, 22
75. William Inman, RHP, Brewers, 20
76. Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks, 23
77. Wade Davis, RHP, Devil Rays, 21
78. Erick Aybar, SS, Angels, 23
79. Matt Harrison, RHP, Braves, 21
80. Brent Lillibridge, SS, Braves, 23
81. Glenn Perkins, LHP, Twins, 24
82. Sean Gallagher, RHP, Cubs, 21
83. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pirates, 22
84. Kevin Slowey, RHP, Twins, 23
85. Sean Rodriguez, SS, Angels, 22
86. Michael Bowden, RHP, Red Sox, 20
87. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Brewers, 19
88. Hank Conger, C, Angels, 19
89. Cesar Carillo, RHP, Padres, 23
90. Chris Parmelee, OF, Twins, 19
91. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Diamondbacks, 24
92. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees, 19
93. Christopher Marrero, OF, Nationals, 18
94. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Marlins, 22
95. Cedric Hunter, OF, Padres, 19
96. Pedro Beato, RHP, Orioles, 20
97. Javier Herrera, OF, Athletics, 22
98. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Braves, 19
99. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Phillies, 19
100. Elijah Dukes, OF, Devil Rays, 23
TEN WHO JUST BARELY MISSED THE CUT Brian Barton, OF, Indians, 25
Alexi Casilla, INF, Twins, 22
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Yankees, 22
Chris Lubanski, OF, Royals, 22
Eric Patterson, 2B, Cubs, 24
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox, 23
Radhames Liz, RHP, Orioles, 24
Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds, 22
Kurt Suzuki, C, Athletics, 23
Neil Walker, C, Pirates, 21


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As a Yankees fan, I'm EXTREMELY pleased to see Philip Hughes up that high. I have very high hopes for him, and most people think he'll make his way into the rotation this season. His numbers in theminors have been absolutely disgusting (in a good way, of course). I also like the fact that the Yankees have 4 pitchers on this list, and one more who just missed the cut. Putching has been the chilles heel in recent years. It's nice to see they have so many promising young prospects.

I also always get a chuckle when I read about "Evan Longoria". I just keep picturing a 5-foot tall Latina playing third base...

[Freak]

Travis Snider, the Blue Jays' 1st-round-pick from last year (ranked #40, 19 years old) looks like an absolute stud -- which is great considering he's one of just two Jays on that list.

[Danny Diamond]

I looooooooooove Prospects.

[Dr. Giganto]

Here's an awesome, in-depth look at minor-league prospects, all players under 25, and the status of each team's minor-league system:

The PECOTA Top 100 by Nate Silver	Printer- friendly
	Contact Author

This is my favorite column of the year to write, perhaps because there’s relatively little actual writing involved. Let’s bring the PECOTA Takes on Prospects series to its long overdue conclusion. The PECOTA Top 100 Below is PECOTA’s take on the top 100 prospects in the game, as rated by Upside score. A couple of notes and caveats before we proceed: The Upside rating is designed to evaluate players in terms of value in their pre-free agency seasons. They are not, strictly speaking, intended to speak to who is going to have the most valuable career. Players are eligible only if they have at least 100 professional plate appearances or batters faced available in the PECOTA database. The most prominent players excluded by that criteria this year are pitchers Luke Hochevar and Andrew Miller. Japanese players are not considered for purposes of the PECOTA Top 100. Daisuke Matsuzaka would rank second on this list if he were eligible. Pitchers are shaded in light blue. You’ll also notice the presence of a handful of relief pitchers on this list, who we didn’t write about in detail because frankly, I think relief pitching prospects are pretty boring beyond their being rare. ‘BA’ and ‘KG’ represent a player’s placement on the Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein Top 100 lists, respectively. Finally, you’ll notice that there are a series of funny-looking colored boxes next to certain players. These are called 'flags', as inspired by the Scouts Inc. NFL Draft rankings, and represent a quick-and-dirty way to express a particular concern about a certain prospect. There are conceivably any number of flags that might be applied to this list, but I’ve decided to go with just four for the time being: The Injury Warning flag means that the player is currently suffering from a substantial injury that is unaccounted for by PECOTA. The Sample Size Warning flag indicates that the player just barely met our 100 plate appearance threshold, and that PECOTA may be failing to regress his numbers to the mean sufficiently. The Development flag indicates a player that scouts have very deep concerns about; there are probably a couple dozen players on this list to whom this tag could conceivably be applied, but I’ve decided to point out only a handful of the most obvious cases. Finally, the Unique Player flag indicates a player who has very few appropriate comparables in the PECOTA database. This usually means that the player is either very, very young, or very, very good. In a few cases, more than one flag might be applicable to a given player, but I’ve stuck with the one most appropriate flag for simplicity’s sake. Overall, this list contains a pretty good mix of pitchers and position players, and older and younger prospects. A couple of parting thoughts on the players that PECOTA has rated much higher than the scouting-based lists, with an emphasis on 2007 performance to date: Dustin Pedroia (PECOTA #6, BA N/R, KG N/R). I’ve watched quite a few of his plate appearances this year and can’t say I’m impressed. Then again, it isn’t easy to be impressed by someone who is struggling to hit .200. Still, Pedroia’s BABIP thus far this year is a meager .205, versus a career minor league rate of .317. He strikes out so rarely and walks so often that if he can get that number up to a modest .280, he should be good for a .360 OBP, which isn’t without value at a middle infield position. Yeah, I’m hedging my expectations a little. Alexi Casilla (PECOTA #7, BA N/R, KG N/R). Basically, Dustin Pedroia with plus speed, which makes him a lot more acceptable to scouting types. The lack of plate discipline so far in the majors is disturbing; getting a 50-60 point walk rate boost to his OBP is essential for a player that isn’t going to hit for any power. Felix Pie (PECOTA #9, BA #49, KG #42). Here’s one that I think the scouts just flat missed, which is ironic since Pie has something of a ‘five tools’ flavor. Chris Iannetta (PECOTA #10, BA #92, KG #49). I know he’s off to a bad start in Colorado, but I suspect the scouting-based lists are failing to account adequately for his positional value. Kevin Kouzmanoff (PECOTA #11, BA NR, KG #52). Another guy off to a bad start, but I can’t fathom how a player who had an OPS in excess of 1050 in the minor leagues last year didn’t crack Baseball America’s Top 100. Brent Lillibridge (PECOTA #12, BA #93, KG #80). He’s held up relatively well at Mississippi this year in the early going, posting a .301/.388/.397 line thus far in one of the toughest hitting environments in the minor leagues. Kelly Johnson has suddenly turned into Chase Utley Lite, so Lillibridge's job opportunity in Atlanta will likely be at shortstop rather than second base. It will be interesting to see whether Lillibridge can force the Braves’ hand on Edgar Renteria. Eric Patterson (PECOTA #13, BA N/R, KG N/R). He’s not hitting much, either, though the entire Iowa team has played a weird schedule featuring just a handful of home games, and is hitting just .236/.309/.348 as a club. Clearly, one difference between PECOTA and the scouting-based lists is that PECOTA seems to be much more gung-ho on players like Patterson with good on-base skills but limited power. In theory, this is simply a reflection of the fact that on-base skills remain underrated in certain circles. In practice, if guys like Pedroia and Patterson don’t get it turned around, I’ll have to check and make sure that PECOTA isn’t getting something wrong with these guys. There aren’t very many .290/.360/.390 type players in the major leagues these days, and perhaps there’s something structural in the way the game is playing that makes it harder to sustain those sorts of numbers. Sean Rodriguez (PECOTA #18, BA NR, KG #85). Rodriguez is crushing the ball, with a .323/.443/.600 line on the season to date. He has a much more well-rounded skills set than some of the other players we’ve been discussing, and I’d be surprised if he isn’t generating a ton of buzz within a couple months’ time. Kevin Slowey (PECOTA #20, BA #71, KG #84). A former major league exec wrote in last week to take exception to my claim that Slowey is the Dustin Pedroia of pitching prospects. His numbers have been very encouraging in Triple-A so far, including a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In summary, I endorse most of these ratings, with the potential exceptions being the quartet of middle infield prospects (Pedroia, Casilla, and Patterson, and Lillibridge to a lesser extent) that don’t hit for power. In contrast, here are the players that rate in the Top 20 on one of the scouting-based lists but that PECOTA isn’t so keen on: Homer Bailey (PECOTA #35, BA #5, KG #4). The pitchers in the Homer Bailey (or Matt Cain) class clearly seem to be underrated by a system that can’t account directly for velocity. Still, PECOTA is looking smart so far, as Bailey’s 13/9 strikeout ratio in his first 21.1 innings at Louisville are pretty discouraging. Justin Upton (PECOTA #118, BA #9, KG #29). He’s been tearing it up lately after a slow start in the California League, and is now up to .333/.428/.478. There may have been some effort issues that undermined his statistics last year, and PECOTA is going to have a very tough time accounting for that sort of thing. Troy Tulowitzki (PECOTA #78, BA #15, KG #24). Tulo creates arguments not just between scouts and PECOTA, but also within the scouting community. Some dissidents in the later group concur with PECOTA’s conclusion that he just isn’t that special. The sample size isn’t large enough to make much out of Tulowitzki’s .210 career EqA in the big leagues, but this is a player who was supposed to have a smooth transition to the majors. Carlos Gonzalez (PECOTA #146, BA #18, KG #31). This one has less to do with PECOTA and more to do with how the Davenport Translations handled Gonzalez’ extreme hitting environment in Lancaster last year. So far, with Gonzalez hitting just .200/.237/.343 for Mobile, the DTs are looking pretty smart. Adam Miller (PECOTA #82, BA #23, KG #19). I’ve never claimed that PECOTA does a good job with handling injuries, which undermined Miller’s data in 2005. That said, his peripheral numbers in Triple-A haven’t been terrific so far. We can try and bridge the gap between these two schools of thought by creating a hybrid list that combines the yin of PECOTA and the yang of Goldstein into one perfect whole. This is accomplished by taking the geometric mean of a player’s ranking on the PECOTA and Goldstein lists, respectively. Where Kevin has not ranked a player in his Top 100, I have assigned him a default ranking of #150. Where PECOTA has not ranked a player because he’s ineligible for its list because of sample size issues, I have simply taken Kevin’s ranking verbatim and ignored any PECOTA-based forecast entirely. The Hybrid Top 60 Player PECOTA KG 1 Alex Gordon 1 1 2 Philip Hughes 5 2 3 Tim Lincecum 3 6 4 Evan Longoria 2 10 5 Chris B. Young 4 8 6 Delmon Young