Coaching decisions: What would you do?

Dr. Giganto

But, would missing the 2-point conversion really affect momentum THAT much? After all, you did just drive down the field to score.

Plus, let's take the exact scenario that Brandon presented above, to show that you WOULD have enough time to score twice more. And, I'm going to add a Part 2 to this question.

The TD comes with 3 minuts left. After the kickoff, there is about 2:55 left. They have the ball at the 20. They run and get stuffed on first down, you use a timeout. They run again and get three yards, you use a timeout. 2:50 left. They try to pick up the first down with a pass and it falls incomplete. So, they punt from the 23-yard yard line, and get a net punt of 37 yards. So, you're now on your 40 with about 2:40 seconds to go, 1 timeout, and the two-minute warning. That's plenty of time to score and attempt an onside kick. Plus, remember that a field goal comes into play here, so in that case, on one of the scoring drives, you only need to get to the 25 or 30 yard line.

So, now, here's part two of the question:

You're down 9, and after driving for a little bit, you have first and 10 at the 15 yard line. Passes on first and second down are incomplete. A third down pass goes 9 yards, and the receiver gets out of bounds. You have 4th and 1 on the 6-yard line, 30 seconds to go, one timeout. Do you kick the field goal or try to get the first down and get into the end zone?

Jayman

Super Moderator

To answer part 2 of the question (I feel part one has been done to death - although you kick the 2pt first)...

You go for the TD first. Again, even if you try for the FG and make it, with only 30 seconds to go you need a TD as 2 more filed goals is impossible. So you HAVE to get a touchdown either way. First and 1 on the 6? You need to pass it and hope for an end zone TD, because you only have 1 TO left. Onside kick, and try to get the ball. When you do, you may be close to field goal range with a little less than 30 to go and a timeout remaining. Do a rush play or two to gain a few yards, then take a timeout with a few seconds left. Kick the field goal to win the game.

I know, this situation is pretty tough, but it has happened before. That's my take on how you handle it.

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Dr. Giganto

By the way, if the success rate for 2-point conversions is really 66%, then I would go for 2 EVERY time, unless a kick would put me up one at the end of the game, or make it a 4-point game (so a field goal can't win it) or a 9-point game, or something like that.

66% is about 2 out of every 3. You would score more points over the course of the season going for two if you can succeed at that rate.

You guys may have noticed I'm becoming very big into "outside the box" thinking when it comes to sports. There's nothing I hate more than when I'm having a sports-related debate and I give logical reasons to do something non-traditional, and the only reasoning the other person can give is "Well, that's how it's always been done, so thats what you should do". Just because something's been done for a long time, doesn't mean it's right (i.e., the college football bowl system)

Killswitch

Well it's a good thing you don't coach. You take the PAT, you don't need the points yet and chances are you're not getting the ball 3 times anyway. By not throwing Schilling who is scheduled, you are giving the impression you are giving up game six. That's not the way it works. You play for the win.

Slimdust

Slim does his best Herm Edwards impersonation...

''You play to win the game''

Dr. Giganto

Why? Because I don't think conventionally? Because I use logic and reason rather than "going with my gut" and doing things the "traditional" way?

I guarantee my way of doing things in both these scenarios would be more successful over the long-run than the alternatives. I challenge anyone to give me a rational explanation why my choices are wrong. The closest anyone came was Freak, with his "momentum" argument.

The 2-point thing goes like this: You NEED a 2-point conversion at some point. If you go for it early and miss, you can still adjust your gameplan to the 9-point defecit. Maybe it's a snowball's chance in hell, but it's at least SOME chance. If you go for it late and miss, it's probably too late to do anything about it. Chances are you didn't conserve time, and the game is over.

Everyone who thinks you kick the PAT on the first one thinks about what happens if you miss the 2-pointer on the first TD, but does not take into account what happens if you miss on the second TD.

You guys aren't seeing the big picture. And maybe it is a good thing that I'm not a coach, because I would out-strategize the fuck out of nearly every coach that is out there. And the reason for that is BECAUSE I'm willing to look past conventional wisdom and think about what would actually increase my chances of winning, rather than just doing what's always been done

Freak

I kick the field goal, run the clock down to about :26, and try the onside kick -- simply because you have to conserve time. Going for 4th down means that a lot of time is coming off the lock, and then you have to spend even more time (presumably) running another play to get in the end zone -- on top of the ensuing onside kick, and big play to get into field goal range. If you just kick the FG and get the ball back with, say, 20 seconds and one timeout, you have at least a shot at the endzone.

Either way, it's not likely, and that's why in the first case, I cut it to 8 and just assume my team is capable of making a later 2-pt. conversion. I really do think the momentum swing is huge -- yeah, you've just driven down the field to score, you've gained ALL the momentum, and by missing a 2-pt. score you're right back to being two scores down. That would crush a team.

Killswitch

Alright, alright. I see your logic there.

After hearing your numbers on the pitching matchups though, I still say you go with your ace in game 6 and win it there. You take too many chances relying on him in a do or die game 7 situation.

Dr. Giganto

Sorry if my tone was a little harsh on that last post...I just re-read it, and I came across as kind of a dick. Didn't mean for it to sound like that. My apologies