Coaching decisions: What would you do?

Killswitch

Well then, if it boils down to those simple statistics, it doesn't matter because, statistically you have the exact same chance no matter how you do it.

Still doesn't mean enough(even if the field is neutral, who are the fans behind?) (Does the TD put you on a 21 point run, or is that your first touchdown since the first quarter as an example). and again, if everything is average then it really doesn't matter which way you do it. You play to the strengths of the situation.

Dr. Giganto

ok, nevermind....


Do you really think all those things make THAT much of a difference?

And anyway, the choice I would make, I would make in almost ANY situation

Freak

This is the correct answer. You kick the PAT, gain the momentum, and get back out there on defense. If you miss the 2-pt. attempt, your team is totally deflated, and you're down by two scores again.

Dr. Giganto

ok, here are what I think are the correct moves in these situations. Of course, it's open to interpretation, but I vehemently believe in the two strategies I'm about to name.

For the football one, you absolutely, 100% of the time, go for 2. There are two ways to win the game: You either need to score a 2-point conversion, or score 3 times. If you kick the PAT, you have not clarified that situation.

You have to try for 2 eventually. You get it out of the way as soon as you can, because you can adjust your strategy accordingly. If you make it, you know that next time you get the ball, you dont have to worry about the clock as much, as long as you get in the end zone. But if you miss, you know that you have to play much more urgently, because you have to get the ball back again.

If you kick the PAT, and then miss the 2-point conversion on the 2nd TD, you may not have left yourself enough time to get the ball back.

Also, if you go for 2 and succeed, you give yourself the opportunity to do something really ballsy, and go for 2 AGAINon the 2nd TD.

Basically, you have to go for 2 as early as possible, because it eliminates some of the uncertainty in your decision-making for the rest of the game.

As for the baseball question, you would be better off saving Schilling for game 7. You only need to win one of the remaining two games to win the series. So, if you maximize your chances of winning one of the two games, you are maximizing your chances of winning the entire series, since all you need is one win.

Looking at it mathematically, if you pitch Schilling Game 6, you have a 50% chance of winning that game. If you lose, you have a 50% chance of winning Game 7. So your overall chance of winning the series is 75%.

But, if you pitch Clement Game 6, you have a 25% chance of winning game 6. And, of the remaining 75% of the time, you have a 75% chance of winning. Thus, your total chance of winning now becomes 81.25% (25% plus 75% times 75%). It's not THAT big of a difference, but if you're trying to maximize your odds, that would be the way to go

Freak

I disagree, Tom.

At that point in the game, there's no way you're thinking about three possessions. It's way too little time, and coming back from a margin like that in the span of three minutes is nearly unprecedented.

If you go for the 2-pt. and miss, you've essentially just driven down field to get back in the game, only to be essentially right back where you started. That's just crushing your team's momentum.

You kick the PAT, make it a one possession game, and kick off as you normally would -- with ALL the momentum. The percentage of you making that 2-pt. attempt (I saw it's around 66% this year) is so, so far above the likelihood of getting the ball back twice and scoring twice, that you roll the dice and take momentum over strategy.

(I do understand your logic though.)

Danny Diamond

Founder/Admin

*I havent read the answers yet, but....

Yeah, you HAVE to go for two. If you miss the 2 or kick the PAT you are still down two scores. Attempting the 2 pt conversion at least gives you a chance at one score to tie.

Pitch Schilling. If it goes to 7, you can exhaust all pitchers.

Simple answers from a simple man.

Freak

You misread the question. If you kick the PAT, you're down by 8, which is one score.

There's no question that you go for two if you're down by 10.

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

You have to affect the other team's decision mor ethen your own. You have to keep them thinking, keep them playing.. They know tha tthey will have to pick up some 1st downs if you are only down 8.

To me it maximizes the chance that the other team will make a mistake or be shaken.

Freak

Exactly. The risk you take of not making the 2-pointer to tie it up is negligible, when you consider the momentum and mindsets of both teams, as well as how unrealistic it is to get the ball back twice and score both times.

Blitzkrieg

Administrator

Think about how many times a team has won like that in the closing minutes. The other team gets the ball back and starts from their 20.. They run once, stuffed. Run twice, couple yards. Now it's 3rd and 7. They either have to run again to just keep the clock moving or more likely they'll have to pass which is makeable, but still the odds are in your favor. They punt and all of a sudden you only have to go about 55 yards or so.. maybe less, with all of the momentum on your side and doubt firmly planted in the mind of your opponent.

How can we stop the bleeding? We can't blow this!