Slim

NOTE: In 2004, Pro Football Hall of Famer Troy Aikman devised a formula for measuring the efficiency of NFL offensive and defensive units. While the league ranks these units based on total yards per game, Aikman wanted to create a more comprehensive ranking similar to the QB passer rating. Each week during the season, Aikman will post his updated ratings on NFL.com. (See below for an overview of the factors that contribute to the Aikman Efficiency Rating.)

(Oct. 11, 2006) -- The Colts, Eagles and Chargers remain one-two-three in the Offensive Aikman Efficiency Ratings -- but the Bears' rise to fourth in the NFL's yardage ranking is matched in the Aikman.

"Aikman" offenses that are outperforming their yardage totals continue to include the Bengals, Texans and Seahawks (naturally, since they were all on bye last week). A newcomer to the ranks -- the Jaguars.

Jacksonville rose from 18th to 15th after gaining "only" 312 yards in their 41-0 win over the Jets. But they advanced from an Aikman Offensive rating of 71.8 to 80.5 and from 20th to eighth in the rankings. Playing turnover-free football and scoring 35 of 35 possible points in the red zone will do that.

The Ravens remain ahead through Week 5 in the Aikman Defensive Ratings, but the Bears have closed the gap to just 2.6 points.

The Bears are the new leaders, ahead of San Diego, in the Aikman Combined. Five of the top six teams at the moment, all but Chicago, did not make the playoffs last year.

The defensive trend reflected elsewhere in the NFL in 2006 also shows in the Aikman Efficiency Ratings. Last year, six offenses and two defenses finished above 85.0 with the league offensive average checking in at 75.6 -- slightly better than the norm of 75.0. So far in 2006, only one offense and five defenses are above 90.0 with the league offensive average down to 74.5.

Aikman Offensive Efficiency Ratings
Aikman NFL Team AER
1 3 Colts 93.5
2 1 Eagles 86.8
3 6 Chargers 86.6
4 4 Bears 86.2
5 2 Giants 85.6
6 11 Patriots 82.1
7 16 Bengals 81.3
8 15 Jaguars 80.5
9 10 Rams 80.1
10 7 Saints 79.8
11 5 Cowboys 79.6
12 12 Redskins 79.0
13 28 Texans 78.1
14 21 Seahawks 76.5
15 18T Chiefs 76.0
16 23 Panthers 74.2
17 17 Lions 71.3
18 20 Jets 71.2
19 18T Broncos 71.1
20 8 Falcons 70.5
21 13 49ers 70.2
22 24 Dolphins 69.1
23 22 Cardinals 68.2
24 29 Ravens 67.8
25 30 Bills 67.7
26 14 Vikings 67.5
27 9 Packers 67.1
28 27 Titans 65.3
29 31 Browns 65.2
30 26 Buccaneers 65.0
31 25 Steelers 64.0
32 32 Raiders 53.0
NFL Average 75.4




Aikman Defensive Efficiency Ratings
Aikman NFL Team AER
1 2 Ravens 102.5
2 3 Bears 99.1
3 6 Falcons 95.9
4 1 Chargers 93.0
5 12 Broncos 92.8
6 8 Jaguars 86.6
7 4 Chiefs 86.0
8 23T Eagles 81.9
9 22 Rams 80.2
10 7 Vikings 79.7
11 9 Cowboys 79.0
12 5 Dolphins 78.8
13 14 Steelers 77.8
14 16 Patriots 77.2
15 18 Panthers 76.0
16 25 Bengals 74.7
17 20 Buccaneers 74.7
18 27 Cardinals 74.1
19 13 Saints 72.6
20 11 Seahawks 72.3
21 10 Raiders 71.2
22 31 Packers 70.3
23 15 Bills 70.1
24 23T Browns 69.2
25 21 Redskins 67.7
26 19 Colts 66.5
27 28 Lions 65.8
28 17 Giants 63.0
29 26 49ers 62.8
30 30 Titans 62.7
31 29 Jets 60.9
32 32 Texans 53.8
NFL Average 75.5



Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 5
Aikman NFL
Rank Record Team Combined Off Def Off Def Combined
1 5-0 Chicago 185.3 86.2 99.1 4 3 7
2 3-1 San Diego 179.6 86.6 93.0 6 1 7
3 4-1 Baltimore 170.3 67.8 102.5 29 2 31
4 4-1 Philadelphia 168.7 86.8 81.9 1 23.5 24.5
5 3-2 Jacksonville 167.1 80.5 86.6 15 8 23
6 3-1 Atlanta 166.4 70.5 95.9 8 6 14
7 3-1 Denver 163.9 71.1 92.8 18.5 12 30.5
8 2-2 Kansas City 162.0 76.0 86.0 18.5 4 22.5
9 4-1 St. Louis 160.3 80.1 80.2 10 22 32
10 5-0 Indianapolis 160.0 93.5 66.5 3 19 22
11 4-1 New England 159.3 82.1 77.2 11 16 27
12 2-2 Dallas 158.6 79.6 79.0 5 9 14
13 3-1 Cincinnati 156.0 81.3 74.7 16 25 41
14 4-1 New Orleans 152.4 79.8 72.6 7 13 20
15 3-2 Carolina 150.2 74.2 76.0 23 18 41
16 3-1 Seattle 148.8 76.5 72.3 21 11 32
17 2-2 N.Y. Giants 148.6 85.6 63.0 2 17 19
18 1-4 Miami 147.9 69.1 78.8 24 5 29
19 3-2 Minnesota 147.2 67.5 79.7 14 7 21
20 2-3 Washington 146.7 79.0 67.7 12 21 33
21 1-4 Arizona 142.3 68.2 74.1 22 27 49
22 1-3 Pittsburgh 141.8 64.0 77.8 25 14 39
23 0-4 Tampa Bay 139.7 65.0 74.7 26 20 46
24 2-3 Buffalo 137.8 67.7 70.1 30 15 45
25 1-4 Green Bay 137.4 67.1 70.3 9 31 40
26 0-5 Detroit 137.1 71.3 65.8 17 28 45
27 1-4 Cleveland 134.4 65.2 69.2 31 23.5 54.5
28 2-3 San Francisco 133.0 70.2 62.8 13 26 39
29 2-3 N.Y. Jets 132.1 71.2 60.9 20 29 49
30 1-3 Houston 131.9 78.1 53.8 28 32 60
31 0-5 Tennessee 128.0 65.3 62.7 27 30 57
32 0-4 Oakland 124.2 53.0 71.2 32 10 42



Aikman Efficiency Ratings Formula
The Aikman Efficiency Ratings measure offensive and defensive performance using a combination of seven key statistics identified by Troy, and then measured against league norms (and extremes) established over the last 10 years. An offense or defense performing exactly at league norms in all categories will achieve a score of 75. The better the offense or defense, the higher the score on either scale.

It will take a truly exceptional unit to score more than 90 during an entire season on either the offensive or defensive scale. Higher scores are possible in individual games.

In 2005, AER scores ranged on offense from 92.6 (Seattle) to 60.9 (San Francisco) and on defense from 89.3 (Chicago) to 61.1 (Houston). The seven categories measured are:

Adjusted Points (20%) -- Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties
Turnovers (20%)
Red Zone Efficiency (20%) -- Measured by Percent of Possible Points (see below)
Yards Per Play -- divided into Yards Per Rush (10% of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10% of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks.
First Down Achievement -- divided into Total First Downs (10% of total) and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (10% of total)
Percentage of Possible Points in the Red Zone is figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3).

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Slim

Check it out for Week 6


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Dr. Giganto

Good find. This is pretty cool.

I've put some thought into doing something like this myself. I went back and I read this paper that I wrote for a senior level economics course called Econometrics. It's basically a class in analysis of statistical data. But, it can be applied to almost anything, even if it's not economics-related.

So, let's say, the variable you wanted to consider was points scored. And, you wanted to see how it correlates with yards gained. You would take the data from hundreds of team results over the years, and see what the correlation is between the two. And, you can also see what the coefficient is, meaning, say, the data shows that in general, a team scores 1/20th the amount of total yards gained, so you would have an equation like:

Points = (Yards gained / 20)

And then you can add other variables to it too. Aikman's rating is similar to this, but I doubt the long-term data actually fits into his data so perfectly. Also, the primary goal is to put points on the board, so I think it's important to start with Points as the dependent variable, and see how other variables affect it.

Unfortunately, I don't have the data, software, or the time to do this. But, this is the kind of thing I'd love to do if and when I go to grad school for economics

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Slim

Pretty cool.. You should do that one day.

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Dr. Giganto

Just now, I had some downtime at work, and I started putting 2005 data into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. I put in each team's points scored, yards per pass, yards per rush, interceptions thrown, fumbles lost, sacks allowed, completion percentage, 3rd down percentage, and kickoff return average. You can run simple regression analyses on Excel, but unfortunately, my penny-pinching company has a cheap version of Excel that doesn't have the Data Analysis tool. God, I hate my company sometimes (most of the time)...

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