Dr. Giganto

Those sabermetric, moneyball folks have a stat called VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) that is supposed to measure a player's overall offensive contribution. What it is, by definition, is the number of additional runs that a team has scored as a result of having this player on the team instead of a AAA caliber player (their definiton of a "replacement player"). For pitchers it is the number of fewer runs the team has allowed by having this pitcher on the team. Note that this doesn't take defense into account. Also note that it is park-adjusted, so a hitter who plays in a pitcher's park gets a boost, as do pitchers in a hitter's park

AL Overall

Travis Hafner 81.3
Johan Santana 75.9
Derek Jeter 74.5
Grady Sizemore 68.2
David Ortiz 68.0
Roy Halladay 67.3
Jermaine Dye 65.5
Manny Ramirez 61.2
Miguel Tejada 61.0
Jim Thome 60.1

NL Overall

Albert Pujols 80.1
Ryan Howard 76.7
Miguel Cabrera 75.6
Chris Carpenter 69.1
Brandon Webb 67.7
Carlos Beltran 65.3
Roy Oswalt 65.3
Lance Berkman 64.1
Bronson Arroyo 60.6
Garrett Atkins 57.5

AL C

Joe Mauer 59.6
Victor Martinez 44.6
Jorge Posada 33.6
Ramon Hernandez 27.5
Kenji Johjima 24.2

NL C

Brian McCann 46.4
Michael Barrett 31.8
Mike Piazza 23.5
Josh Bard 23.4
David Ross 22.4

AL 1B

Justin Morneau 54.6
Paul Konerko 45.8
Jason Giambi 44.6
Lyle Overbay 32.6
Mark Teixiera 25.0

NL 1B

Albert Pujols 80.1
Ryan Howard 76.7
Lance Berkman 64.1
Nick Johnson 53.9
Adam LaRoche 35.2

AL 2B

Robinson Cano 40.1
Brian Roberts 32.1
Tadahito Iguchi 27.2
Luis Castillo 20.3
Ian Kinsler 19.9

NL 2B

Chase Utley 53.8
Ray Durham 44.3
Dan Uggla 42.6
Orlando Hudson 31.9
Jeff Kent 30.8

AL SS

Derek Jeter 74.5
Miguel Tejada 61.0
Carlos Guillen 59.1
Michael Young 44.4
Julio Lugo 32.0 (now in the NL)

NL SS

Jose Reyes 54.0
Rafael Furcal 48.0
Hanley Ramirez 44.9
Jimmy Rollins 40.2
Bill Hall 35.6

AL 3B

Alex Rodriguez 44.3 (surprise, surprise...)
Mark Teahan 29.4
Troy Glaus 27.9
Joe Crede 24.0
Mike Lowell 16.2

NL 3B

Miguel Cabrera 75.6
Garrett Atkins 57.5
David Wright 49.1
Chipper Jones 47.2
Freddy Sanchez 43.9

AL LF

Manny Ramirez 61.2
Carl Crawford 36.3
Reed Johnson 32.4
Jaun Rivera 25.8
Raul Ibanez 25.5

NL LF

Matt Holliday 51.2
Alfonso Soriano 50.0
Jason Bay 47.3
Barry Bonds 42.3
Luke Scott 34.8

AL CF

Grady Sizemore 68.2
Vernon Wells 57.1
Gary Matthews Jr. 50.9
Johnny Damon 43.3
Rocco Baldelli 30.3

NL CF

Carlos Beltran 65.3
Andruw Jones 40.7
Mike Cameron 37.4
Eric Byrnes 27.0
Kenny Lofton 23.6

AL RF

Jermaine Dye 65.5
Vladimir Guerrero 57.8
Ichiro Suzuki 36.4
Michael Cuddyer 32.8
Marl Derosa 25.6

NL RF

J.D. Drew 28.8
Bobby Abreu 25.3 (now in the AL)
Brad Hawpe 23.4
Jacque Jones 23.1
Brian Giles 19.6

AL DH

Travis Hafner 81.3
David Ortiz 68.0
Jim Thome 60.1
Frank Thomas 45.3
Esteban German 28.9

AL Starting Pitchers

Johan Santana 75.9
Roy Halladay 67.3
Ching-Ming Wang 50.9
Francisco Liriano 50.6
Jered Weaver 45.7
Barry Zito 45.0
Mike Mussina 44.9
Justin Verlander 44.9
Curt Schilling 44.6
C.C. Sabathia 43.4
Dan Haren 42.6
Erik Bedard 42.5
Nate Robertson 42.1
Kenny Rogers 39.9
John Lackey 38.6
Scott Kazmir 37.8
Kelvim Escobar 37.3
Jon Garland 36.9
Jose Contreras 36.6
Jeremy Bonderman 36.5
Kevin Millwood 34.8
Vicente Padilla 32.5
Jake Westbrook 32.2
Ted Lilly 26.3
Freddy Garcia 26.0

NL Starting Pitchers

Chris Carpenter 69.1
Brandon Webb 67.7
Roy Oswalt 65.3
Bronson Arroyo 60.6
Jason Jennings 53.7
Carlos Zambrano 51.3
John Smoltz 50.9
Chris Capuano 48.5
Jason Schmidt 47.7
Aaron Cook 42.7
Derek Lowe 42.6
Dontrelle Willis 41.3
Aaron Harang 40.0
Josh Johnson 39.8
Jeff Francis 39.0
Chris Young 37.9
Roger Clemens 37.5
Brett Myers 37.3
Clay Hensley 35.5
Matt Cain 35.4
Brad Penny 35.1
Tom Glavine 33.8
Anibal Sanchez 32.2
Jake Peavy 32.1
Scott Olsen 29.5

AL Relief Pitchers

Jonathon Papelbon 38.3
B.J. Ryan 35.3
Joel Zumaya 33.3
Mariano Rivera 32.0
Francisco Rodriguez 30.5
J.J. Putz 30.4
Joe Nathan 30.1
Scott Proctor 26.2
Scot Shields 25.5
Rafael Soriano 25.1

NL Relief Pitchers

Takashi Saito 28.9
Geoff Geary 26.6
Billy Wagner 26.1
Darren Oliver 25.8
Pedro Feliciano 25.4 (wow...3 straight Mets)
Cla Meredith 25.2
Adam Wainwright 24.4
Trevor Hoffman 23.6
Mike Gonzalez 23.1
Dan Wheeler 22.8

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Brandon

I guess I don't agree with the stats. Most runs are pointless especially in Yankee games. Just look at A-Rod. The guy puts up huge numbers still but for the life of me I can't think of all that many runs he's accounted for that were important.

To me, David Ortiz was the most important player in the AL for most of the year until the team fell apart around him.

Good read though.

Dr. Giganto

The thing is though, runs scored and runs allowed actually give a pretty good indication of how good a team is, and this stat generally does a good job of telling you who's good and who's not.

I think I've mentioned before a stat called Pythagorean Winning Percentage. It's a stat that estimates how good a team is. You take the number or runs scored, square it, then divide it by runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared, and the resulting percentage gives you a team's "expected" winning percentage. It generally has a very high correlation with actual winning percentages.

Where it comes in handy is seeing which teams kinda got lucky, and which teams got unlucky, or which teams are likely to fall apart and which are likely to make a charge. For instance, through much of last year, the Nationals were in first place although they had allowed more runs than they had scored. Looking at their Pythagorean %, you could assume that they would cool down, and sure enough, they did. Same thing with the Reds this year.

And, if you look at the stats, look who the top AL players are: Hafner, Johan, Jeter, Sizemore, Halladay, Ortiz, Dye. Anybody could tell you that those guys had the best years this year. But where this stat comes in handy is the middle of the pack players. Like, most people don't know who Mark Teahan is, but you can look at these standings and say "Holy shit...this guy is pretty good!"

And while I agree that not all hits/home runs/runs are created equal, the only way to really quantify it would be to go through the play-by-play data and assign a value to every single situation the player was in. That's way too difficult. This stat attempts to give you a thorough analysis of a player's year, with relative simplicity to calculate, since all you really need to know are the hard stats (OBP, SLG, SB, CS...I'm not sure what else goes into the formula).

Also, notice how A-Rod is WAY below Ortiz, Dye, Jeter, and the other MVP candidates, which is indicative of his poor season (by his abnormally high standards)

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Brandon

It is very interesting, I guess I just don't want to use this one stat to be the be all end all of the who's who in MLB. I'm not saying that's what you or they are going for, I just see a lot of examples on the list that don't add up..

The AL MVP candidates is a great one. That fits together pretty well. But I was just looking at the relief pitchers and I saw Papelbon at the top of the AL. I have a problem with that one. The guy was untouchable in the 1st half but then when the Sox needed him the most he cooled off where as Mariano Rivera will most likely be untouchable in the post-season which is obviously more important.

Still, it's fun to discuss the numbers and where people are ranked.

Dr. Giganto

I think one thing that's interesting is the whole "You can't win the MVP if you're a pitcher because you only play 20% of the games" thing. First of all, that's total horsehit.

Each hitter, on average gets about 4 at-bats per game. That's 4 chances to do something to contribute to the offense. However, a starting pitcher faces something like 25 batters a game. So, even though he may not play every game, when he is in there, he contributes significantly more than a position player in that same game.

This year, Johan Santana has pitched 225 and 2/3 innings. That means that he has recorded 677 outs. That's more plate appearances than Derek Jeter has this year (653), and Jeter has only reached base 265 times. That's only 25 more than Johan's number of strikeouts.

The Twins are 26-7 (.788 winning percentage) in games that Johan starts. In those 7 losses, they've been shut out twice, scored 1 run once, and scored 2 runs twice. So, only twice this year have they lost a game in which Santana had 3 or more runs of run support.

Their record in all other games: 64-55 (.538 winning percentage)

Without Santana they are an 87-win team. With him, they are competing for the best record in baseball

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Dr. Giganto

Here's another cool website:
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They have a win expectancy calculator, which can be used to see how valuable anything you do in a situation is.

So, for instance, if you start with "Visiting Team, 1st Inning, 0 outs, Bases Empty, Score differential = 0 ", which is basically the situationwhen the leadoff hitter steps to the plate, you see that between 1979 and 2004, teams in this situation won 46% of the time.

Now, put in "Score Differential = 1" (a leadofff home run), and the percentage goes up to 56%. So, that's a 10% difference.

But, let's say you look at the same two situations, but in the bottom of the ninth, 2 outs. With the score tied, the visiting team has a 38.6% chance of winning. But, if the next batter hits a home run, their chance of winning goes all the way up to 82.7%, a 44% difference. Which shows how much more valuable a ninth inning home run is compared to a leadoff homerun in the first inning.

I think an interesting thing to do would be to take Ortiz and A-Rod's game-by-game results from last year, and figure out who was the most valuable by adding up how much they contributed to their teams chances of winning, using this calculator. It would take FOREVER, but maybe if I have nothing to do on a Saturday afternoon, I'll work it all out

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Brandon

lol that'd be cool. I'd like to see it if you actually go through with it. I agree on Santana. I really don't know where I'd go for MVP. I thought Ortiz was a lock but then the Sox fell apart. Then I started thinking Jermaine Dye and the Chi-Sox fell apart. I hate giving the MVP to non-playoff teams if there are other candidates whose teams did make it..

So, I'd consider Santana for sure, but I think it'll come down to Justin Morneau and Jeter.

Dr. Giganto

Here are the final VORP results:

AL position players:

1. Travis Hafner 80.4
2. Derek Jeter 79.2
3. David Ortiz 73.8
4. Grady Sizemore 69.8
5. Carlos Guillen (whoa!) 67.0

NL position players:

1. Albert Pujols 86.6
2. Ryan Howard 81.3
3. Miguel Cabrera 79.1
4. Lance Berkman 71.2
5. Carlos Beltran 67.6

AL pitchers

1. Johan Santana 79.7
2. Roy Halladay 68.2
3. Chien-Ming Wang 55.5
4. Francisco Liriano 51.1
5. Barry Zito 51.0

NL pitchers:

1. Roy Oswalt 71.8
2. Brandon Webb 68.6
3. Chris Carpenter 67.2
4. Bronson Arroyo 63.1
5. John Smoltz 62.5

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Necro

I didnt know Halladay is good again, I thought he fell off a few years ago weird...