Here's another little analysis I did.
You know the expression "Dont make the first or third out at third base"? Well, I decided to look into it.
I used this run expectancy matrix:
Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002
What that tells you is that for each baserunner/outs-in-the-inning situation, how many runs did a team, on average, score. Data was from 1999-2002.
We'll assume the starting point is runner on 2nd. With nobody out, the run expectancy (RE) for this situation is 1.189. That means that on average, teams scored 1.189 runs between 1999 and 2002 when there was a runner on 2nd and nobody out.
If the runner either steals third or stretches a double into a triple, the RE goes up to 1.482, for a gain of .293 runs (1.482-1.189). But if the runner gets thrown out, the situation becomes no runners on, with 1 out. The RE for this situation is .297, for a loss of .892 runs.
With 1 out, the potential gain of getting to third is .258 (a little less than the 0 out case), but the loss from getting thrown out is -.608, which is much less damaging than getting thrown out with 0 outs.
With two outs, the gain is minimal (.043), and the loss is .344. More importantly, the RE drops all the way to zero, since the runner would have made the last out of the inning.
Thus, it is proven that if you are going to take a risk getting to third, it should be with 1 out, not with zero or two outs