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Originally Posted by Freak  Tom, does it cost money to access the projections? |
yeah, I have a BP subscription, so I was able to download their PECOTA projections spreadsheet.
I've got them on my work pc though,, and I dont think I'm going to the office tomorrow...I can forward you a copy next week if you want
also Simon, I definitely understand the "gut feeling" thing...I had that about Matt Holliday about 3 years ago. Unfortunately, it was 1 year before his breakout season.
So, using my little system, this was how I did my drafts...
First was the 16-team league. This draft was on March 1st, so there was a LOT of uncertainty about player's roles on their teams, prospects who may or may not have been called up, etc. It's 16 teams, 24 rounds, so the talent pool was going to be VERY thin after the draft. My strategy was to have strong starting pitching, since good pitching is hard to come by, and strong hitters at the hard-to-fill positions, like the middle infield. I wanted to hold off on 1Bs and OFs, since it's easy to find good players at those positions, and they tend to pop up over the course of the year. Also, I decided in the second half of the draft to go prospect-heavy. At that point, after 200 or so picks, I knew I could either pick players that i KNOW are mediocre, or young players who could be this year's Ryan Braun/Tulowitzki/Hart/Pence.
I had the 13th pick out of 16. MY picks, according to round and overall pick, went:
1. Jake Peavy (SP) 13
2. Cole Hamels (SP) 20
3. Brian Roberts (2B) 45
4. Carlos Guillen (1B, SS) 52
5. Billy Wagner (RP) 77
6. Huston Street (RP) 84
7. Jeremy Bonderman (SP) 109
8. Andruw Jones (OF) 116
9. Geovany Soto (C) 141
10. Justin Upton (OF) 148
11. Ian Snell (SP) 173
12. Evan Longoria (3B) 180
13. Joey Votto (1B,OF) 205
14. Ian Kennedy (SP) 212
15. Felipe Lopez (2B,SS) 237
16. Rick Ankiel (OF) 244
17. Mark Reynolds (3B) 269
18. Mike Jacobs (1B) 276
19. Dave Bush (SP) 301
20. Jay Bruce (OF) 308
21. Chad Gaudin (SP) 333
22. Nate Robertson (SP) 340
23. Andy LaRoche (3B) 365
24. Colby Rasmus (OF) 372
Since then, I've dropped LaRoche (out two months with a broken wrist) and Rasmus (sent to the minors, too many people inthe majors to jump) and picked up Mark Teahen (1B,OF) and Luke Scott (OF). I put Gaudin on the DL and picked up Noah Lowry.
I'm hoping somehow, someway, Votto wins the 1B ob in Cincy, and I'm going to hold onto Bruce and Longoria despite the fact that they're starting in the minors. They're too good to risk losing, and we have 8 bench spots, so i have plenty of room for them on the roster.
It was a high-risk strategy, but I felt it needed to be done in a league this deep...