| Re: Fantasy help needed
I dont know...Baseball Prospectus's projection system can be a little quirky with certain players, especially those that have really unique characteristics about them. It could be that they see Francouer's low walk rate and high K rate and assume he cant keep up the same level of performance? Maybe he's had an abnormally high BA with runners in scoring position and they assume he'll "regress to the mean" Actually, I just looked it up and he batted .341 with runners in scoring position last year, helping contribute to his 100+ RBIs. The system probably assumes he'll bat closer to his overall career average when he's up with RISP this year.
As for the SBs, maybe the system just sees "24-year old OF" and assumes he'll run more?
Baseball Prospectus is pretty hush-hush about how they come up with their PECOTA rankings, but I do know they just plug all of the players's data into the system and it spits out a series of projections. They're generally pretty good, although they're obviously going to miss sometimes. |