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Old 03-27-2008, 03:16 PM   #16 (permalink)
Dr. Giganto
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Re: Fantasy help needed

The rankings are determined according to how each player does in each stat (runs, HRs, RBIs, etc), relative to the average number of players in the model. I took the total teams in each league, and multiplied the number of players you need at each position by 1.5, making the assumption that with bench spots, each team will have on average 4.5 outfielders. Thus, for my 12-team league, my spreadsheet had 54 OFs listed, but my 16-team league 72 OFs listed. The strengths of those extra 18 players can shift the rankings.

So, for instance, if the 18 players I add are generally high-power, low-SB guys, then the existing high-SB guys will get a boost. So, for instance, Ichiro will become relatively more valuable, since he steals a lot of bases, and the percentage oh high-SB guys is lower. If the 18 extra guys are predominantly low-power, high-speed guys, someone like Adam Dunn would get a boost, since there are relatively less sluggers.

Comparing the 2 files, it looks like most of the "extra" OFs in the 16-team league were low-SB guys, so the system likes Corey Hart's projected 22 SBs a lot more than Francoeur's 8 projected SBs.

By the way, Hart's projection for this season was 92 runs, 26 HRs, 83 RBIs, 22 SBs, and a .282 AVG...

Rios was 92-21-85-16-.281

Hunter: 81-20-87-17-.284

Manny: 74-22-89-1-.281

Francoeur: 76-22-86-8-.283

Also, they projected Manny to have about 100 less at-bats than the other guys, because of injury risk

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