Dr. Giganto

The most recent section I read dealt with my biggest pet peeve as far as "traditional" strategy goes...the 3-run save.

The authors of the book showed that a team that goes into the ninth inning with a 3-run lead wins 95.5% of the time. But you might be thinking to yourself "Well, of course that's true...teams bring in their best reliever to pitch in this situation." And you would be right. But there are times where non-closers need to come in and shut the door, whether it be because of injury, fatigue to the closer, etc. So the authors separated the performances of the elite closers in the game: Rivera, Wagner, Hoffman, etc. (their data pre-dates guys like Papelbon).

They found that the elite closers "save" the game in 97.5% of these chances, and that the absolute worst relievers who have been brought in to save these games have been successful 94.5% of the time. So, whats the point? You could use almost any reliever in your bullpen in this situation and still exit the game with a win.

They also found that the "win value" (the difference between how often the closer saves the game and how often the average pitcher saves the game) is doubled in a 2-run game, and tripled in a 1-run game. So, whats the conclusion? Dont bring in your closer in a 3-run game, because you might need him in a tighter situation the next night