| Re: Bonds vs. A-Rod
If he stays healthy, A-Rod could be the first player to crack 800 home runs. I've heard some basevall writers saying he could even pass 900.
As of right now, A-Rod has 478 home runs. Let's say he hits 46 this year (32 more than what he has now), that would give him 510 at the end of this year, at age 32. If he averages 35 home runs (his lowest HR total since 1997, so that's a pretty conservative estimate) a year, he would have 545 at age 33, 580 at age 34, 615 at age 35, 650 at age 35, 685 at age 36, 720 at age 37, and 755 at age 38.
So, given that conservative number, he would probably pass Aaron. Given a more reasonable estimate, like 40 home runs a year, he would have 790 home runs at age 38. 800 is definitely in the realm of possibility. Bt of course, he would need to stay productive (not a problem), and injury-free (so far, not a problem) |