| CNN.com
National survey of likely voters also too close to call
Monday, November 1, 2004 Posted: 9:39 AM EST (1439 GMT)
(CNN) -- Likely voters surveyed in six major showdown states indicated that they are almost evenly split in their support for President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry, according a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday.
A separate Gallup poll of likely voters indicated a similar split nationwide, with 49 percent choosing Bush and 47 percent taking Kerry -- a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 percent.
In the battleground state polls, only in two places did a survey indicate a lead outside the margin of error. (Opinion poll figures)
Those states were Wisconsin, where Bush led by 8 points, and Minnesota, where Kerry led by 8 points.
In the other states, Bush had leads of 2 points in Iowa and 4 points in Pennsylvania. Kerry had leads of 3 points in Florida and 4 points in Ohio.
The figures were mostly the same among registered voters, except in Pennsylvania, where Kerry had a 2-point lead.
Vice President Al Gore carried both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2000, and no Republican candidate has won the White House without winning Ohio. (Showdown states: Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania)
Perhaps the most significant shift in the poll was in Florida, where the same survey indicated Bush ahead by 8 points among likely voters last week, though other state polls indicated a much tighter race. (Full story)
In 2000, Florida clinched the election for Bush, after a month of recounts and court challenges. (Showdown state: Florida)
Bush campaigned most of Sunday in Florida. Kerry ended his day in Florida, too, after stops in Ohio and New Hampshire. |